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this post was submitted on 22 Feb 2024
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Yes, and you were talking about the importance of the Black Sea for a sea invasion of Israel, so ? I only pointed out that to stage a sea invasion of Israel the Black Sea is useless.
How exactly ? You cannot move anything out but your enemy can move everything in and out. How do you think you can use it to defend yourself when the entry point and half the coast is under NATO control ? I mean, Russia is losing ships to a country that don't even had a Navy, what do you think will happen if NATO put a fleet in the Black Sea ? Or NATO decide that after all Sevastopol need to be leveled ?
Nobody here think America is the hero, but that Russia is the villain. And still, we are discussing about what Russia is doing, not what US did.
I was just using Israel as an example, I dont think Russia even would invade Israel right now if capable. Imagine if the eastern med was controlled by an enemy of Israel though. They could actually affect the genocide. That's why sea power is so vital.
There is no chance an invading army/navy could get through Constantinople without control of the black sea. It's the ultimate choke point. It forces any would be invader to come at Russia through turkey.
America is not the hero, and so the reason they are arming Ukraine is entirely out of self interest for their capitalists. America wants to prevent Russian southern stability, because if somebody is trying to come at Russia through Constantinople, it'll be America (or a hired warlord, more likely). Russia having useful ports hinders America's power to meaningfully sanction those they dislike. Cuba, for instance, can't trade with anyone in Europe, due to American sanctions. If Russia could trade with them more effectively, that weakens the American stranglehold. Right now the world needs a check on America a lot more than it does preventing Putin taking control black sea ports.
I see your idea but it is absolutely irrealistic.
Even assuming you take control of the Black Sea and Turkey (without the infamous article 5 trigger), to be able to control the easter med you need to be able to project power, which you cannot. It is not that difficult to stop a fleet just outside/inside the Marmar Sea and out of Gibaltar.
It is the same to try to get out the Black Sea. But so far if someone want to invade Russia from the Black Sea it could, because the only way for Russia to have help (I mean ships, not infantry) is from Gibraltar which is even more easy to close to them while the invader could do whatever he want.
Or maybe they understood, like Europe did even if too late, that Russia doing it this way is dangerous for everyone. I am not that naive to not understand that US do it for their own interest but on the other hand I'm not that stupid to not understand that if we let Russia (and a bunch of others) to continue to destabilize the situation it is bad for everyone.