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this post was submitted on 01 Mar 2024
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Toyota already admits that they are behind on their battery technology, despite having decades of opportunities to improve and innovate with their hybrid models.
Now they want to double down on their atrophy by effectively throwing their money away instead of investing in the future?
On the surface, this does not sound like a good plan for long term growth and profitability.
Someone told me they bought big into hydrogen powered vehicles. Seems they can't let it go.
Seems like they know first hand about "wasted investment" then.
Which they seem to have turned into a sunk cost fallacy.
"Well, we've proven to ourselves that we're incapable of investing without it being a sunk cost that we are too petty to let go and will fight tooth and nail to make profitable... So let's just skip investing in much of anything new ever because we're nincompoops. If there's no guaranteed profit, why invest?"
Japan has no lithium to mine. So hydrogen is the best option for them. While I understand this for Japan, there’s a big world out there where Toyota is a market leader… for now.
You are also missing the fact the Japan's power grid is in a desperate need of repairs and improvements. Hydrogen won't fix however it introduces some lower cost temporary fixes that can be quickly implemented. In the long term the correct solution would be to fix the grid but we both know if there's a cheaper and easier solution what they'll go with...
but there is no hydrogen to mine either. Hydrogen is made from fossil fuels too (most of it)
Yes, steam methane reforming is the most cost effective. But there are other ways to make it. The most eco friendly was is electrolysis that uses electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. There are some microorganisms, such as algae and bacteria, that can produce hydrogen through biological reactions—but those aren’t able to scale today.
Important thing is there are multiple ways to produce hydrogen. Cheapest is through methane, but that's only because methane itself is cheap. There are other methods of producing hydrogen and the more demand there is for it, the cheaper it'll get. Especially when you consider there won't OPEC to mess around with prices by rigging production against demand. So it would be smart to focus on fuel source which can be easily produced anywhere and can provide similar performance like current ICEs.
yeah, but we urgently need that huge amount of renewable energy elsewhere.
Yeah getting it that elsewhere often isn't feasible
Lithium to my knowledge is not as abundant and very hard to recycle. There are a lot of chemical waste in all processes.
It wasn't very abundant 10 years ago. More deposits have been found, refining and extracting technology has improved and hopefully we will see the first commercial mass produced sodium-based battery this year (not in 25 years like fusion).
Lithium nickel cobalt batteries are still the best for density per kg, but will be reserved for premium cars in the future.
Sunk cost fallacy.
Yes, biggest car manufacturer, which also manufacturer of the most popular hybrid car in the world, doesn't know what they are doing when they are making cars. Right. I'll take your word for it.
You want me to ignore my own experience and all of the bad business decisions we’ve observed companies make throughout history because you want to be oppositional and edgy.
Also doesn’t help that you don’t know what a fallacy is. I recommend you have a look at Wikipedia.
Nokia was way more dominant in the phone market than Toyota in the automotive industry. Yet, when it was time to jump on the new technology that everyone else was jumping on (android), they fell into the sunk cost fallacy and stood by their own, outdated tech (symbian). That promptly got them bankrupt. Toyota may still change its course, but if they wait too long, they are going to end up just like Nokia did.
That's a far better comparison than other offered. Nokia failed not because Symbian was outdated, but because they tried to have too firm of a grip on it and it didn't evolve fast enough. But yeah, I can see that happening if Toyota decides not to share their tech with others and hydrogen doesn't end up being wide spread as a result of it. Not sure if they'll go bankrupt but still. Honda once almost did when they went all in on Wankel engines.
Yes, big companies fall into sunk cost fallacies all the time. Glad you're keeping up.
Meanwhile Toyota is giving people $40k to buy their Mirai.
They are giving discounts, not paying people to buy their car. It's a big difference. Government is also giving subsidies for EVs and corn. Should we say government is paying you to buy corn?
But now hydrogen gas stations in California all closed down. So they sorta need to pivit
They have just released hydrogen internal combustion engine. This engine can burn gasoline, CNG or hydrogen. So transition with it would be super easy. But world is set on EVs which are not that great and a lot less cleaner than people seem to think. Mining for Lithium is a very chemically dirty process and there's no abundance of it, especially not enough for everyone to switch to EV. Am thinking they realize this and are jumping over the hurdle early on, but are trying to push hydrogen into spotlight. More production means prices will drop and eventually it would get a lot cleaner to produce it as well.
That's really not impressive. Lots of people converted their vehicles to run propane or NG during the 70s oil embargo. You can do it with pretty much the exact same piston engine.
BEVs are far better and yes cleaner.
Funny that you think this of hydrogen, but not of batteries. Given that I'll say cheers.
Batteries are already being developed and advanced. I just don't see why people think there can only be one technology. Even now we have multiple viable technologies and I see no reason why that can't keep going on.
In the small chance you're serious, because production of, transportation of, leakage of, and burning of gas, ng, or propane still pollutes. Hydrogen can technically technically be done cleanly but is still energy intensive, difficult to transport, difficult to store, difficult to distribute, difficult to store again in your car, and leaks along that whole path. It's really not a good path. And for what purpose? So you can fill up in a few minutes (assuming the nozzle hasn't frozen from use, look it up), forgetting that most people can charge their ev overnight meaning they start every day with a full tank.
BEVs and clean energy has a far, far easier and simpler path forward. Not to mention the development potential of batteries far exceeds that of hydrogen production (production only because there's really not much that can be done for other parts).
If you want another solution it's transit, ebikes, and trains.
I doubt I'm going to respond any further.
Hydrogen ICE makes something that was already losing on efficiency even worse. It possibly has some race applications, but probably nothing beyond that.
That's not true at all. There are 1.4 billion cars in the world now, while the lithium ores that are readily available for mining (22 million tons) were estimated to be enough for 2.8 billion cars a year ago. Twice the amount of cars existing today.
But since then, there was already another massive stockpile discovered in the US, that alone is bigger than that (20-40 million tons), so enough for another 3-5 billion cars. But there will surely be discovered new sites, now that we are actually, intensely looking for it. We have been looking for oil for more than a century now and are still discovering new reserves. Lithium will be the same.
Toyota has bet on hydrogen.
Someone will be along in a moment to tell us all about how you can't store hydrogen. Meanwhile there are eyewatering amounts being invested into water cracking facilities right now.
Check out the map of West aus:
https://www.wa.gov.au/system/files/2023-11/00232_1_hydrogen_projects_oct23_a4_web.pdf
Or 15,000 km2 of solar & wind producing 3.5m tonnes of hydrogen pa:
https://wgeh.com.au/
It takes a lot of hubris to bet against the largest car manufacturer.
Saying that a company convinced a politician that something was a good idea doesn't make it true. A lot of money has been invested in really stupid things in the past.
Politicians aren't pouring many billions of taxpayer dollars into these facilities.
Large companies, global consortium size companies, are doing research which is leading them in this direction.
It's not Toyota execs sitting in a board meeting saying "what can we do to be edgy", it's well resourced think-tanks being asked for potential solutions to our energy problems.
Not billions but tens of millions
Another one, the first large scale hydrogen project in all of Australia over half funded by the government
And over $160 million more(AUD I assume) to other projects
So yea it is pretty heavily government funded
Again, a lot of money is invested in really stupid things. If you've worked in a big company you know that, if you haven't watch a Thunderf00t video then. I personally was in a meeting several months ago where $500,000+ was spent on a new machine, rather then just extend the meeting for a couple hours and plan the process for how it could be avoided.
The WGEH I linked will cost many billions.
Just because money has been invested in stupid things, does not mean that investing money is evidence of a stupid thing.
Every one of the largest projects in the plan you linked have been significantly (in the cases I linked half or more) funded by the government.
No, but it does mean that money being invested doesn't prove its a smart thing.
Yes, world's largest car manufacturer doesn't know what they are talking about when they talk about car manufacturing. Or they realize battery powered vehicles are only a stop gap measure that doesn't have long term feasibility and they are jumping over that step. They were amongst the first manufacturers of hybrid vehicles and still produce most popular hybrid. But no, Toyota admits they are behind on battery "technology". You really have to stretch logic to get that argument going.
They have launched a fully electric car, and it absolutely sucks. It say it's the worst in its price class, behind not only newcomers (Tesla, Rivian, BYD, etc) but even American, European and other Japanese manufacturers.
Kodak Was the biggest player in photography and invented the digital camera, look where they are now. Don't underestimate corporate greed, infighting and short-sightedness.
There's one good thing about the bz4x: you can wait a bit for first year depreciation to hit, and then it looks pretty good.
But by then the depreciation also hits Model Ys, Nissan Ariyas, Ford Mach Es, VW ID4s, Škoda Enyaqs, Hyundai Ionic 5s, etc...
Not equally. Check first year prices on the bz4x. It hits it hard.
Am not, but am also not underestimating the fact they have decades worth of data on battery manufacturing, use and recycling. All of us are just talking out of our ass. Also comparing anything to Tesla and positioning Tesla as quality makes your argument significantly less impactful.
I didn't mention quality, don't let your prejudices cloud your reading.
My bad.
Fallacy of appeal to authority. Toyota could be fucking up despite the points you make.
I don't think this is really an appeal to authority.
The assertion is, without knowledge of the future, Toyota's predictions (based on research and expertise) is more reliable than that of some cryptobros on Lemmy.
You're debating who's opinion is more credible, the selection of an appropriate authority if you will.
An appeal to authority world be "smart guy says hydrogen is dead".
I was keying in on OP's statement:
With the sarcasm taken into account, the intent appears to be:
Taken with OP's other arguments, he clearly believes Toyota shouldn't be questioned simply due to Toyota is the largest and most profitable car company (thus far, anyway). I'm pretty sure that's an appeal to authority.
Possibly. But assumption that they make good cars because they are popular is not a wrong one to make. It's possible they are fucking up, of course. Remains to be seen.
Kodak would like a word with you.
Most profitable car manufacturer too.