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this post was submitted on 03 Apr 2024
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No 180 required. Russia is willing to come to peace, and will probably require succession of Donbass, which is something Zelensky is adamant about not doing despite being offered that way out.
For all I'm aware, LPR/DPR combatants are not forced into service at gunpoint. You know who is? Ukrainian soldiers (and some Russian ones, too).
I mean internationally recognized transition and end of the war.
Who's gonna be a next victim, if I may ask? Just about every neighbor of Russia to the West is already part of NATO (except Belarus, and, well, Ukraine), and most of those on the South and East have some form of guarantees of their own or ability to stand up for themselves and kick Russia's ass.
The aftermath of this conflict is that the countries at highest risk already defended and prepared themselves, so that Putin cannot call for another war.
Also, let's avoid turning it personal. Either keep it civil or end it. I offer you an option to leave the discussion if it triggers you.
Ah, yes, the "stop fighting and let me kick you" school of pacifism.
If nothing else, he's a politician. Politicians want to stay in power, not be disposed off by their people.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_mobilization_in_the_Donetsk_People%27s_Republic_and_the_Luhansk_People%27s_Republic
If NATO drops Ukraine Putin will consider NATO weak, a paper tiger, and not hesitate attacking NATO land. Especially if the US loses the rest of the bit of sense they have and re-elect Trump. They of course won't get anywhere with that and it will be nigh impossible to keep the Poles from marching straight to Moscow, the mad bastards aren't afraid to get nuked over it, but that doesn't mean that he wouldn't try.
And no Georgia and the -stans aren't really up to defending themselves, not against a Russia which had a couple of years to lick their wounds.
Fair pick against "let us kick each other to death"
The will to stay in power population be damned is bloody dictatorship.
Thank you for info on LPR/DPR mobilization. Worth noting it happened in all participants of the conflict, however.
NATO is very much not a paper tigerz and the risk is just not worth taking.
That's not what I said, or what the situation on the ground is. If Zelensky were to trade away territory the people would get rid of him. Ukraine is a democracy, even if he wanted to he couldn't act against the overwhelming will of the people.
It's a massive difference whether you draft for offensive or defensive purposes. Also, whether or not you throw people at the enemy with or without training and even weapons. That's a thing that very much does not happen in Ukraine.
Objectively, yes. But what matters for Putin's decision is not objective reality but his subjective judgement. "Talk softly and carry a big stick" doesn't really work if you have someone who thinks that "talks softly" means "doesn't have it in them to use the stick". Russia overall seems to think that ruthlessness is something you have to train, develop, and they pride themselves in having done it -- in reality, it's the other way around.
Is an overwhelming will and war sentiment even there? Because I can't seem to notice signs of that.
My point around NATO is that since it's objectively not a "paper tiger", it will respond should Putin be mad enough to attack a NATO country. The escalation will be very quick, and the reaction very overwhelming for Russian forces. And, as politically mad as Putin is, he does understand a thing or two about politics and NATO.
You mean of the people in the street cheering for marching troops kind of thing? Ukraine isn't the country for that, they don't like war, but when needs be then needs be and the polls show that.
His understanding is of the cunning, not smart kind. If he was actually smart he wouldn't have started this whole shitshow in the first place. He would've long understood that his underlings are feeding him bad info out of a desire to look good and counter-steered, and not made various other fatal strategic blunders. Maybe there's a reason why he never ranked higher than Lieutenant in the KGB.
Could you please link the polls again?
He's smart enough not to attack a NATO country, and even if not, he'd quickly pay the full price for such actions.