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this post was submitted on 03 Apr 2024
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If we follow the "original settlers" logic, we need to return Crimea to Tauris, or, in lieu of those in the modern world, Greeks, who settled there about 2 millenia earlier than Tatars and were later conquered by Romans, Khazars and Russians, and only then Tatars, who very much didn't give a damn about anyone who lived there before them. "Original settlers" is always a bad justification, because various plots of land were inhabited by different people over the years. And currently, majority of Crimean population is Russian.
Right - many Tatars have returned, boosting Crimean Tatar population from ~1% to ~10%. That's what should be their share in political power. Or should Crimean Greeks seize all the power? Crimea never was an independent republic, it was only reformed in early 1991 to an autonomous region - which was, however, still part of Ukrainian SSR and then remained an autonomous region of Ukraine. As such, talks on joining Russia would essentially be an act of separatism, sparking conflict to try and get into Russia that probably wouldn't accept them to not provoke international backlash among huge crisis.
As per how Ukraine treated Crimea - the most pronounced side, one you probably think most about, is further support for Crimean Tatars; however, the Russian population (which, I remind you, is 6,5 times that of Crimean Tatars and a dominant nationality on the peninsula), as well as many Ukrainians themselves, were very much not happy about this development, sparking conflicts, so the benefit of such policy remains questionable. Actually, one of the hopes behind the transition was that Putin would better manage the Tatar question.
Economically, Crimea has won a lot over the transition to Russia, with massive infrastructure development, increase of wages, free trade with other regions of richer Russia, and increased flow of tourists fueling the economy. Also, Crimeans got easier access to Russian universities, which generally rank higher than Ukrainian ones.
I didn't say that protests were massive - although for the level of control that government currently exerts and lack of oppositional leadership, the scale was indeed impressive. I'm saying that many people came to protest for the first time, because when this happens, no level of political ignorance can overwhelm THIS. When 1917 happened, people were starving to death. You would either die from a bullet, or from starvation. People chose bullets.
There is a lot that should have been done differently before the current moment, and it is people's responsibility to not let that happen. But there we are, what now?
That is, utter naivete. It's like Russians living in Estonia dreaming of Russian greatness, stepping across the border for the first time in 45 years, only to literally step in shit once they're across and come back as quickly as they can.
Kremlin guards have fewer weapons than the Ukrainian army. Would you rather catch a bullet in Donbas or in Moscow? No landmines in front of the Kremlin, either. You're Russian, you're gonna say "валяй, ебёна мать!" one way or the other, question is where's the cart bloody going?
If the Russian people don't have that in them, then it's going to be a grinding defeat in Ukraine followed by a regime-internal putsch and whatever the Siloviki come up with next, everyone up there already has made their move and it's probably going to be another Gorbachev: Someone who the powers that be think is a safe and controllable option because he (definitely a he) manoeuvred to be seen as safe and controllable. On the upside, Swan Lake is a quite beautiful piece, actually. Though I have to admit I missed the 2nd act at the Bolshoi to sneak out with a girl, no regrets.