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this post was submitted on 10 Apr 2024
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No Stupid Questions
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Assuming they're still using silicon tech, it probably won't be that much better than top of the line laptop from today. Maybe more ram, more cores, more storage, more battery capacity, better screen, but roughly the same single core speed.
Everything will be 30x better, but, while the battery has 30x the capacity, the screen, CPU, and networking chip consume 30x the power, meaning you'll have exactly the same runtime - 4-8hrs, depending on screen brightness and load. The drive will be 30x bigger and faster (IO), but the OS will take up 30x as much space. Everything will be 1024-bit to access all of the RAM, and a simple "Hello World" will take up 512MB. WiFi will be terabit speeds, but now that everything is in 32k, streaming is even slower with buffering lags every 3 minutes. Your 60TB drive can hold 12 movies. Boot times are still in the half-minute range because the OS takes up 120GB of drive space.
But while you were in the future, you saw a person on one of these peak machines running tmux in a tty on Linux, and no display manager.
I wish my work laptop could last 4-8 hours... It dies after one hour on the dot, always has even new. I get about 5 minutes between the low battery alert and it shutting off
They might not be. We're already starting to run into the limits of silicon as it is, and I can't imagine that we can keep pushing it for another 3 decades.
But we have started to run into these limits year after year, for about the last 30 years ๐
Most of the more recent benefits have been by working smarter, within the boundaries, rather than pushing the boundaries. Both have diminishing returns.
There's still room for improvement in both, but not infinitely. We likely already have a lot of the low hanging fruit for brute computing tasks.