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this post was submitted on 27 Jul 2023
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My understanding (and I’m not a scientist, I just have read a lot about this), is that there are two flow states of the AMOC. There is a fast state, and a slower state (which we are in now). It seems like it could just stop, but they don’t know for certain that it will ever completely stop. It will more likely just slow to a point where it is functionally dead. The current has already started to slow, so lots of people are trying to make predictive models about just how slowly it can go or when it will “collapse”.
It's not an on / off situation. It will gradually decline until it finally stops or reaches a critical threshold where it's movement no longer significantly alters weather patterns. None of these climate change thresholds are as black and white as they are made out to be which is one of the argument tactics deniers use to argue against it. The reality is a slow decline until the affects are unrecoverable from.