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this post was submitted on 28 Jul 2023
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politics
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If he isn’t pardoned I think he will spend the rest of his life on house arrest or in prison. These charges are serious, there’s undeniable evidence, and there’s about to be multiple venues so he can’t rely on a judge helping him in every case. Without a pardon his best outcome is being in a mar a lago prison until he dies.
But he’s likely to get a pardon before then.
Hes gonna get a sweetheart plee deal where hes inelligeble to run for office, payd a big fine, and never sees prison. The US already has displayed is had no idea how to punish people like him. They straight up dropped the chages on Matt Gaetz for diddling children, I have no hope for anything real happening to Trump.
Federal pardons issued by the president apply only to federal offenses; they do not apply to state or local offenses or private civil offenses. Federal pardons also do not apply to cases of impeachment. Pardons for state crimes are handled by governors or a state pardon board.
State charges don’t and will never affect presidents while they are in office. Alabama can’t just issue an arrest warrant for Biden. They would if they could. NY and/or GA state will have to wait until after he’s out of office to continue its judicial outcomes, if he wins.
And no senate is going to impeach trump as long as there is a Republican Party.
His best case scenario is he gets elected in '24 and courts are mired in the unprecedented nature of what to do with a commander in chief that is a criminal. You'd think it's simple, but it's really not.
His second best case scenario is that another Republican wins in '24. Even in that case, I have a hard time envisioning how he goes from today where he's like 15 pts ahead but his party acquiesces because of that even though they hate his fucking guts, and he also somehow loses the primary and someone who has enough tolerance for him and the political fallout from a pardon actually goes through with it.
And then there's the problem that even if he's pardoned from the federal crimes, it doesn't extend to the state crimes.
Right now, the likely and not optimal scenario is that he's a very obese nearly 80 year old incontinent man who hasn't seen exercise or vegetable in decades has been mainlining diet coke and mcdonalds the entire time. There is a likelihood that he doesn't see consequence because he doesn't make it that far. This is also why I wouldn't be very worried about '28.
Outside of that, there are public recordings with him virtually confessing to every one of these crimes. Hell, half of them were on TV. So, although I won't be surprised if he somehow rides off into the sunset, it seems unlikely. But anyway, his actual chance at multiple pardons are basically 0.
He won't be pardoned of the Georgia charges. Not a federal court.
Yeah. My comment was made before GA charges were made.
Respectfully you’re delusional. Sorry to burst this bubble of yours but disabuse yourself of that dream, you’re only going to be disappointed.