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this post was submitted on 03 May 2024
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Not in a strategic sense, no, because Kremlin guards are still less well armed than Ukraine. The trouble, of course, is that people are too scared to make that kind of cool-headed analysis but as soon as there's a crack in the regime because, say, Omon can't respond to lesser incidents because they're lying in a ditch in Ukraine the dam would break. Which OTOH is rather unlikely to happen because regime security is Putin's #1 concern, he'd let go of Ukraine before risking it, so he won't kill off their response capability like that. He may be mad but he's not crazy.
Bad idea. If Putin loses, the Siloviki have a good justification for a coup. If Putin gets assassinated, they'd be forced to declare him a martyr and continue the fight.
And Ukraine thinks the same or the SBU would already have gotten to him. They're also not touching the likes of Shoigu, they only target competent people: The more of a clown show the Russian regime is the easier the war becomes.