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this post was submitted on 01 Jun 2024
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Looking at a few different NYC election results, about 25% of the population votes republican. Meaning statically 3 of the jurors should be republican. I am sure it could get more granular when you cross that with their occupations.
Yeah but it's not a purely random sample, because of the jury selection process.
So we can't really say anything in a statistical sense. I'd guess (not based on any statistics, just common sense) that there would be a higher percentage of independents in the jury than there would be in the general population. At any rate they would people that likely don't think about politics very much. With Trump, if someone is politically minded at all they'd have a strong opinion on Trump (one way or the other) and would be likely disqualified from being on the jury.
Anyway the point of jury selection is to not be a random sample, but a group of people that aren't biased for or against the defendant. The polling on the general populace doesn't have the requirement to not be politically biased to participate, so we can't use statistics for this.
Sorry for being being that guy, but proper use of statistics is important to me! Sorry!
Selection process is random but the challenge process keeps it white noise. They're each going to throw away a set number of people that are bad for their side. In the end it ends up being kind of random still anyway.
Is it still likely that there is at least one republican? I think it is possible.
All it would take is one allied republican on the jury to potentially leak juror identities.
The trial was in Manhattan, so that rules out Staten Island. Manhattan alone only voted 14.5% ^[1] for Trump in 2020. Also 55% of registered voters cast ballots in all of New York City in 2020 ^[1] (idk what the actual number is for Manhattan specifically).
So about 7.97% of everyone eligible to vote in Manhattan voted for Trump in 2020. This is about 1/12. There's likely more probability math to perform, but maybe one Republican voter was in the Jury, but it's also likely that none of the jury had ever voted for Trump (despite what they said in jury selection). 3 republicans in the Jury seems high although I'm also too high to do the math.
^[1] https://www.gothamgazette.com/city/9961-breaking-down-2020-vote-new-york-city-biden-trump