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Source: https://www.npr.org/2024/05/31/1198912475/trump-trial-new-york-guilty-appeal-blanche-daniels-what-next-felony
Now some of you will insist this is a handslap, but 7 days per count to be served consecutively keeps him in jail on Jan 20, 2025. If he does get re-elected, he'll be sworn in behind bars.
The judge could go easy on him for being a first-time felon. If the judge goes lenient, and gives him 7 days per count, but makes them consecutive sentences, not concurrent, that's 7 * 34 or 238 days.
July 11, 2024, is the 193rd day of the year, according to https://www.epochconverter.com/days/2024 There are then 173 days left in 2024.
238 - 173 = 65.
The 65th day of 2025 would make his exit from prison on March 6th. If he is elected president, he will take the oath behind bars.
7 days per count vs. 4 years per count isn't throwing the book at him. It is a lenient sentence.
I am not a lawyer, but this site https://doccs.ny.gov/community-supervision-handbook/serving-sentence indicates
If Trump only has to serve 85% for Good behavior, his sentence is lessened to 202.3 days With 173 days served in 2024, that leaves him 29 more days in 2025 to serve (Jan 29). If he is elected president, he would take the oath behind bars.
Could Trump appeal and get out? Potentially, but his legal team needs evidence of an issue with the case. Trump's lawyers in the past have had issues with providing concrete evidence.
From the NPR story above, at least one attorney believes he had a fair trial. I suspect more agree.
Source: https://www.avvo.com/legal-answers/how-long-does-it-take-the-second-appellate-divisio-3381182.html If they have evidence, and get a quick response, 3 months = 90 days (or about October 9, 2024) and Trump could be out then, if they can prove something was wrong, which so far, I haven't seen anything to appeal. But I am not a lawyer.
10 months, or about 300 days, which would put Trump out of jail by the time of his appeal.
I think 7 days per count served consecutively is the way to go.
I'd be more amenable to a lenient sentence if he wasn't an unrepentant pathological liar and stochastic terrorist.
I don't think most people think he would be imprisoned pending appeal, and his lawyers will easily drag out the appeal into 2025.
According to this site: https://law.justia.com/codes/new-york/2022/cpl/part-2/title-m/article-460/460-50/
120 days after the issuance of the stay means 100 days before the end of the year. September 21, 2024 (Sat) Day 265. If he appeals, and a stay is issued between July 12 and September 21, would he not be in prison on Jan 20, 2025?
I don't see him having any concrete way of winning an appeal. And if his lawyers just spew nonsense, I don't foresee an extension being granted.
See that part where it says "except that this subdivision does not apply where the intermediate appellate court has (a) extended the time for argument or submission of the appeal..." ?
Courts postpone hearings and grant additional time for stuff a lot, and courts are particularly eager to give Trump far more leeway than anybody else.
From what I understand this kind of stuff is usually sentenced concurrently. Also, I would avoid any sentence that looks like it's calculated to just prevent him from campaigning. That's a political match you do not want to light. From that angle his sentence should either keep him in jail well past the election and swearing in or release him with a month or more to campaign. A 20 month sentence would be appropriate in the guidelines, and meet this political test. A sentence that sees him released very quickly or not get jail time at all after Cohen served time would be a miscarriage of justice.