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Right with ya. Problem is, the vast majority of Americans are ignorant of history and have a, "Can't happen here!" attitude.
Fascism isn't coming, it's here, now, today.
You have it right on the best/worst case scenarios. Best case might sober enough people up to turn the ride. Otherwise we're sleepwalking into this.
Highly recommend the Podcast It Could Happen Here with Robert Evans.
I tell people as often as I can, especially my trans and bipoc friends; now is the time. Get a couple guns (a long one and a short one) and learn how to use them. Learn some basic first aid, you really just need to know how to stabilize someone. Start networking with like-minded people in your communities. The police will not protect us, they’ve proven they’ll happily club senior citizens to the ground and shoot any protesters in the face with rubber bullets while escorting a rightwing murderer to safety.
Iran was a secular, liberal monarchy until almost 1980 when an Islamic theocracy was installed with public approval, it could happen here.