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this post was submitted on 01 Aug 2023
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And yet still the ice is melting faster than expected and faster than that model predicted, because, as you explain, the models are inaccurate (overly conservative in nature as all scientific studies on complex systems tend to be).
Ice sheet dynamics have been an area where scientists haven't converged on agreed-upon models. So yes, not everything gets there, but an awful lot does. As I said above, enough to be useful.
You seem to keep supporting my point.
The models are conservative, the peer review process is long and we're rapidly running out of time.
It's more complicated than that. The temperature modeling is roughly right. Secondary effects aren't as well modeled, and surprise is a lot more likely there.