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this post was submitted on 18 Jun 2024
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I don't think he believes what he says for the reasons hes claiming. I think if he's really set on not invading it's because hes seen how poorly its working for Russia. China wants Taiwans economy, you cant get that if Taiwan looks like Ukraine before you even get control.
If Xi is being serious it's probably because he's realizing he needs to take Taiwan through economic and diplomatic, and probably clandestine diplomatic means. Weather he has a plan for that remains to be seen.
Given Russia's performance in Ukraine, Iran firing 5% of its total stockpile at Israel and having almost nothing get through modern American air defense, and China's own review of military readiness that showed glaring flaws and corruption, any plans China may have had to invade Taiwan should be postponed indefinitely.
Turning local elections in Taiwan in China's favor in the long term seems like the more viable alternative for reunification.
True, even without reunification (what's for?), China gets more by economical means than it would ever has via invasion. It's insane production capacity, belt&road schemes, education and science are a caricature of a suntzian wise guy who wins a war without a battle. Reducing themselves to a war (and probably destroying everything they are jealous of in Taiwan in the process) would be embarassingly stupid. I watch their sabblerattling as a play, but I'm yet to see any benefit from it besides upkeeping the status of those not to fuck with.
My thoughts exactly. Probably tougher than HK but similar playbook, my guess is a slow long term approach would be the most likely to succeed.
So they opposite of HK where they rushed in and fucked the whole thing up so badly they lost any chance of ever convincing Taiwan?
China can’t operate on long time frames, they’re too beholden to the whims of whatever prima donna is chairman.
Add in psyops programs. They have been a resounding success against UK and the US for Putin.
He’ll take it through political means, by running candidates that support his regime. Then he will put an end to democracy there. Kind of like Hong Kong.
And Russia is able to cart in supplies by road and rail. If anything Ukraine is also showing that supply across a 100+ miles of sea will be nearly impossible. The navy does not have to control the waters, they just need to deny the Chinese access to it and that is much easier.