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First Presidential Debate Megapost!
(lemmy.world)
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this post was submitted on 27 Jun 2024
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politics
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Really. You want me to show polls for something that hasn't happened yet? In 2020, what are you talking about? Half these people I mentioned didn't even run in the 2020 Primaries, forgetting the obvious logical fallacy that "Who does well in the primaries predicts who does better a year from then in the General Election." In 2020, Joe Biden was 4 years younger and far less senile than he shows now while Trump's support was lower mostly thanks to a botched handling of covid at the time.
There is not one data-point where Biden isn't performing worse than he did at this time in 2020.
In the event Biden voluntarily steps down and either an open convention occurs or he endorses, is it really that inconceivable for you to believe overnight polling for such a candidate would skyrocket as both grassroots and establishment and MASSIVE widespread media press inundate such a person with coverage...?
I mean.... What?
The data shows the American people (a) vehemently dislike both candidates, (b) perceive age to be a bigger issue with Biden, and (c) want fresh faces. Any of who I mentioned could've done better last night. Biden brings nothing to the table that the others cannot in this pressing moment.
We already have Newsom vs Biden and Newsom vs Trump polls. And the pundits talked endlessly in 2020 about the shortcomings of each candidate and why they’d struggle against Trump. We’ve been through this already.
If Biden steps down then of course whoever gets nominated will get a bump of course, but like we discussed collectively in 2020, they’d have their own separate hurdles. Bernie Sanders would energize many voters but his socialism talk would turn many voters off. Pete Buttigieg struggled to connect with voters of color. Warren had some political flubs and Trump launched many attacks on her etc. while there’s concern many Americans still won’t vote for a woman for president, and so on. The point I’m making is that you may find yourself in a situation in October where you WISH Biden was running again with his high poll numbers and solid national record that other candidates lack.
That's a fair point but just consider these points:
That's an insane polling for someone who has not once threw their hat in the ring and actually campaigned nationally outside of California.
We're already starting with a President who is predicted by polling to lose to Donald Trump.
Key to note, Biden's numbers are generally baked in. Everyone knows everything about Biden, and the law of diminishing returns suggests nobody is going to find out something they dont' already know.
Whereas just the opposite is true with the likes of Whitmer & Newsom: months of viral media attention, actual national campaigns and speeches, debates, interviews -- have the opportunity for someone to familiarize themselves with such alternate candidates and see the contrast of, "Wow, this guy can actually talk coherently and is far younger..." So you have to tell me with a straight face that once committed to be the nominee their name-recognition and approval skyrocket overnight.
Mentioned weaknesses of candidates can be offset by a VP pick, as they always are.
In truth, we really haven't been through this already. To conclude otherwise is to suggest that Joe Biden is literally the best candidate Democrats can field, which at his age and with his debate performance, is an incredibly low bar.
No, we have a president who is ahead in some polls and behind in others, 6 months before an election (which is generally unreliable since the polls fluctuate wildly this early). Pollsters and political scientists unanimously report polling in June is not reliable this soon before Labor Day. Look back and you’ll see HIllary, Romney, and Dukakis all ahead at this point in previous elections. The reason we are having this conversation is because people got skittish about the Debate, but we don’t even have accurate post-debate survey data at this time. The snap surveys by CNN and others showed a muddle of some people claiming Biden won anyway and others not. More data will come in next week.
And don’t forget the counterfactual; if you replace Biden despite winning the primaries in a landslide, you will anger many voters. Millions of people voted for Biden and this was not close; they rejected Dean Phillips and alternatives. People voted for Harris as a known backup; skipping her and having Newsom take over will cause a storm and backlash of a size we can’t quantify yet. There simply isn’t any data on Democratic voters that show any Biden remorse; you’re operating on the vibes from social media and some pundits.
Correct, and replacing Biden is a huge risk. It could cost the election the same way John McCain took a gamble on Sarah Palin and lost.
I need to hold you to some key points, here:
There is fundamentally ZERO data supporting a Biden victory this November. Think about that.
One would agree that while these are not snapshots in time and October surprises can occur, it's certainly not a GOOD sign that Biden is.
For example, we would consider it to be a pretty good sign if Biden was leading in national polling 80% to Trump 20%, correct? Now obviously this doesn't mean something can't change between now and November, but it would certainly correlate with good prospects - agreed?
Now reflect on that fact that national aggregate polling of all reputable national surveys show Biden trails his 2020 performance at the same time By nearly 10%... When you consider 2020 was decided on the margins in battleground states by ~40,000 voters, this is a terrible sign. Especially when specific polling on black and hispanic and swing-voters in these specific battleground states ALSO bodes worse for Biden this time around.
Many people did not vote for Biden; hell in Florida, they didn't even hold the Primaries it went by default to Biden. An uncontested primaries isn't exactly proof people will be upset -- especially when polling data is already telling us the vast majority of the electorate is unhappy with voting for Joe Biden. And call me crazy but I'm not too worried about the dyed-in-the-wool Democrat from California upset that we change from Biden. I'm pretty sure they'll vote for anyone else the Democrats appoint.
Joe Biden already is our Sarah Palin. You're struggling to find any conceivable data to support your assertions and you know it.
Californians don’t matter here. Voters in swing states like Pennsylvania do. Ohioans are less likely to vote for Gavin Newsom over Biden. If you magically think that Newsom can ramp up a presidential campaign from scratch and beat Biden’s name recognition and win Wisconsin in only 6 months, you’re being insanely optimistic.
Look, I despise Biden since he ignored all his advisors and set a disastrous Gaza policy, and want anyone but him. He was one of the worst candidates of 2020 but since he was “the most electable” we were told to shut up and fall in line. His electability has faltered. But it’s almost July, the window of time to replace him and win already closed. I’m not going to keep arguing, we’ll agree to disagree.
Exactly!! That's precisely my point! You tried to claim millions of people voted for Biden in the primaries when that doesn't translate to battleground swing-state voters.
Biden is the guaranteed loss based on all available data we have, relative to his performance in 2020. Those battleground swing voters? Biden is ALREADY losing them. Besides, there's a non-zero chance that Joe Biden could suffer an emergency health crisis after the convention... And then we're REALLY fucked because at best we default to Harris who polls worse than everyone.
Yes, he absolutely can and I'm not the only one who believes it. If you don't think there wouldn't be a media frenzy over a sudden new face on the scene you'd be crazy. Whitmer, Newsom, or hey -- how about Josh Shapiro who actually outperformed Biden himself in Pennsylvania...? If that's really your concern, after all.
The window of time closes after the Convention. After that, we're stuck.
I repeat: Biden is performing significantly worse in every single data-point compared to his 2020 run where he eeked a win by sliver. If he was up 20 points I wouldn't even be saying a word. But after that debate performance seen by 50 million people? Every indicator for the election is only going to get worse for Biden.