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this post was submitted on 02 Jul 2024
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I don't need to worry about that, but I have standing wagers with several people here on lemmy and elsewhere that Biden both:
a) wont be the nominee,
and
b) wont be the next president.
So I'd have to pay up? But I'm not worried about that in the slightest at this point (I got a bit excited after his 'decent' state of the Union back in March that he might flip on Gaza, but no, he dug his grave further).
Too many other seats are on the line to run Biden.
I took several bets where I was able to get anything from 10:1 or 20:1 in a parlay for a) and b) back in April. I'm confident enough now to do even money if there is no time line associated with it (other than obvious ones like the convention). All in all I probably have about a couple hundred on the line right now? Its all on these two outcomes.
I'll take 10:1 that Biden isn't the nominee at the end of this week if you are willing to offer it, and even money that he isn't the nominee (no timeline) or president. I'm also interested in parlays if you have any you want to propose.
I was meaning in the sense of would you vote for him? Would you support him?
He has to be capable of winning to be worth supporting.
In the past 500 days, at no point had Biden demonstrated any evidence that he can win the election. He didn't campaign as a two term president in 2020, he specifically acknowledged he would only do one term. His polling has been abysmal, almost all of his term, when we know that he already suffers from a 12 point polling deficit on Trump (Biden needs to be beating Trump by 12 to beat him, statistically). His key policies are deeply, the ones that will define him as president, specifically Gaza and the border, are deeply unpopular with the key demographics he needs to win, specifically middle eastern voters in the upper Midwest and any one under 40.
So this all is, and always has been, on Biden, to do better on. He's not a candidate that you can support with these outstanding issues because he can't win an election with them. Supporting him inspire of those issues does nothing to change the fact that he can't win. Infact, the blue maga blind support (orange man worse, blue no matter who, etc..) has significantly harmed our ability to beat Trump because it prevented any pressure being placed on Biden to become a better candidate.
Some one needing to earn your vote in a primary season is bigger than just getting your issues addressed. It's about carving a candidate into someone popular enough to win an election. That's how Biden won in 2020. He had to go caress and finesse various voting blocks into supporting him by becoming a candidate and having a platform they could get behind. And it worked. He won that election by stepping left and effectively cloning the entire progressive/ Bernie platform.
Pretending this guy can win is idiotic and doesn't work. If for whatever reason we still end up with Biden as candidate, we're going to lose this election. And it's going to be because of the blue no matter who/ Blue maga crowd if we do lose. It's an intentional ignorance they've maintained about how electoralism and elections work in an effort to shield an unelectable candidate from criticism, and lemmy.world, the news and politics C's and their associated mods, are particularly rife with it. If we run Biden inspire of his obvious shortcoming which are frankly insurmountable at this point, I put three blame solely in those who made a concerted effort to lie/disguise/ and prevent discussion about his shortcomings as a candidate.
Blah blah blah, answer the question please. You talk like a politician. Would you support him?
Oh I didn't realize you were just jerking off. I apologize for answering you in good faith.
Refusing to answer the question is not good faith.
Would you support him?
You can engage with any of the points I made to show your honesty at any point.
But you won't.
Stop changing the subject. Answer the question. Will you support him?
-Lago, Othello (5.2. 347-348)
That is the most elegant way to say "I got nothing" I've ever heard