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this post was submitted on 08 Jul 2024
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Harris, Newsom, and Whitmer would probably be my top 3 picks for viability. Of those three, I think Whitmer would be my favorite choice, but I think Newsom would be the most pragmatic choice (and to be clear, there is a LOT I don’t like about Newsom, despite the fact that I align with him on a decent number of issues) in the context of electability (white, male, a touch religious but not overly so, charismatic, great public speaker). I think Harris is uninspiring and the wrong choice for a TON of reasons, but the establishment will probably stick with her if they are somehow forced to not go with Biden simply because she’s currently VP.
But, you know, that’s what primaries are supposed to be. We’re not really supposed to have the DNC essentially just playing kingmaker and doing cloak and dagger shit behind the scenes so their Chosen One ends up guaranteed to clinch the nomination. Unfortunately, the DNC is basically run by corporatist neoliberals at this point, so they aren’t interested in doing that… and they’re also unwilling to admit that such attitudes are precisely how we got here in the first fucking place.
We got Trump because “it was her turn”. And I will NEVER fucking forgive Hillary for that. It’s abundantly clear that the “adults in the room” at the DNC have no fucking idea what they’re doing.
Yeah, the best case scenario was Biden not running for 2024 from the beginning so we could have proper primaries, and align behind the winner. That's how it should have been handled.
But it's too late. None of the candidates you mentioned are strong enough to rally behind this late in the race. Each state would need to figure out a makeshift primary and then align, or DNC would have to choose, which would make it Harris by default. It would be an absolute disaster.
I mean… you and I can armchair general the situation until we’re blue in the face, but the fact remains that the debate and his subsequent interview last Friday (that was supposed to allay concerns, but ended up stoking them - albeit, for me at least, in a different direction) have made not only random joes like me lose confidence in his ability to pull out a win in November, but sitting legislators, party insiders, and the donor class as well. Biden and his campaign are handling this whole thing like rank amateurs and imbeciles, and I'm furious about it because I understand exactly what the implications are if we fail to stop the fascists from winning the election… and neither Biden nor his campaign seem to be taking that as seriously as it needs to be taken.
You're right, but you aren't acknowledging that the current path we are on is an absolute disaster too.
Bidens poll numbers are 12-15% lower than they were 4 years ago when he barely defeated Trump.
To win now, Biden needs to pull off the biggest comeback in US presidential history. And the political fallout from Biden's disastrous debate and interview performances hasn't even settled yet.
With Harris, at least we would have a shot at defeating Trump.
Would all those guys lose to Trump? Probably. Will Biden lose to Trump? Definitely. I'll take long odds over no odds.
No one polls better what are you smoking???
The real reason why no one polls better is that everyone else is a hypothetical right now Even if you phrase the poll as "If Biden backs out, and is replaced by $NAME, will you support $NAME?", people still have their own preferences and that will make it into the poll. They may be secretly hoping for AOC or Michelle Obama or Beyoncé, and say "No" because of that.
But after Biden leaves, if the question is "Now that the candidate is $NAME, will you support $NAME", I think you will find a lot of support rallying behind that person. Because there's no choice at that point.