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Donald Trump Does Not Get Post-Shooting Poll Boost
(www.newsweek.com)
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this post was submitted on 16 Jul 2024
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If the margin of error is of 2 points, you can't say that trump is leading, because both are statistically tied. I hate biased journalism.
Because the Republicans have a built-in advantage in the Electoral College, a Democratic presidential candidate has to be several points ahead in a national poll to even think about being level, in terms of electoral votes, which are the only things that really count in a presidential race.
I'd like this to be true, but remember that these national polls are not helpful to predict the electoral college. Unfortunately, Trump comfortably leads in many must-win states for Biden. Polls are usually wrong, but it's the best information we've got.
Or he could be leading by 4 points.
Edit: 3 points. I guess I struggle with addition now D:
Akcshually just 3
If you're leading by 1.5 points with a margin of error of 2 points, then it's most likely that your lead is real. The range of error is a bell curve. It's more likely for a well-conducted poll to be off by 0.5 points than 1.5.