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this post was submitted on 16 Jul 2024
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Ah, polling.
I guess you have more faith in the accuracy of that than I do.
Not the hard numbers, no, but trends? Yes.
https://lemmy.world/post/17619808?scrollToComments=true
We aren't talking about people switching from Biden to Trump. We are talking about people actually showing up to vote on Election Day.
Nobody is undecided between them if voting was mandatory, what is up for flux is which side will show up more.
You mentioned that you put some stock in the polling. I indulged you by posting a link showing no bump for Trump post-shooting. Now you say it's down to turnout which is pretty much a given.
I'm honestly not sure what point you're trying to make here.
By polling, I mean voter turnout, not which way voters would vote if they do vote.
It's down to turnout, yes. America does not have mandatory voting, ergo whichever candidate can unify and energize their base will win. Centrists already know who they are voting for, proved by the link you provided.
Biden is seeing constant controversy among likely democrat voters, meanwhile Trump is the current GOP darling.
I really don't see how the DNC can pull out a win unless they pull out all support from Israel and/or toss Biden and bring on someone younger, with broader appeal and higher energy.
They win by hammering the point that a Trump victory means the end of the US in its current form. No hyperbole.
Republicans are already blaming that rhetoric for the assassination attempt. So democrats are going to tone that kind of messaging way down for fear of inciting more political violence.
Why would the Democrats have to refrain from telling the truth? The assassination attempt wasn't their doing.
They don't have to do anything. But they are.
Doubtful that that will bring out voters. Historically, voters voting for something outperform voters voting against something.
You really don't think that preventing a national ban on abortion will bring out voters? How about a reversal on tackling climate change? Maybe voting to stop a slide into christofascist authoritarianism?
Come on.
Not as much as promising to implement national bans on abortion, slowing climate change action, and implementing more "christian values" would among conservative voters, no.
Democrat voters have to hold their nose and vote for Biden, largely. Some people still genuinely like him, sure, but compared to Trump, who has a unified base and full support, the Democrats are fractured.
👍
Funny how well written they can be, and follow such little logic.