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this post was submitted on 19 Jul 2024
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politics
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There's an argument to be made that incumbency could actually be a drag right now. People don't feel the government is working for them and they blame those currently in power. We saw with Trump that a lot of people will vote for any kind of change, even if it's objectively worse.
Alright, make it. People haven't felt like the government has been working for them since I was old enough to vote, so I very much doubt that by itself is really your reasoning. People tell me that I change my mind surprisingly easily, so go ahead.
Look at the wave of right wing populists winning across Europe. Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, and a bunch of other countries have elected these kind of anti-establishment candidates. Same pattern as "MAGA" conservatives in the US. These people don't win elections because they're competent. They aren't even good campaigners. They get elected because they're promising to trash the system.
It's not just that people don't feel like the government is working for them, it's that they are looking to authoritarianism to provide solutions.
France and the UK just gave the right a pair of fat Ls, so I don't think your chosen narrative is as clear as you seem to think. Furthermore, we were discussing the potential advantage/disadvantage of specifically being the incumbent, rather than the appeal of the right wing. That is to say, your argument fails to support your thesis.
Trump was an incumbent in 2020. He lost.
Wow, how completely irrelevant to the entire point.
Well I just made incumbency irrelevant to your point, so it seems relevant.