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Is Ismail Haniyeh's assassination a setback for Israel-Hamas peace talks?
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this post was submitted on 31 Jul 2024
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Any outcome where Hamas was permitted to live after October 7th or to govern Gaza was never going to be acceptable, and Hamas was unlikely to ever concede this.
Anything less than the end of Hamas would have been a terrible outcome for all sides. They’d regroup, rearm, and in a few years’ time they’d attack again, more civilians would die, and people would start clutching their pearls and warning about ‘escalation’. And in the meantime, the Palestinians in Gaza would have had to endure their brutal rule.
Once Hamas has been sufficiently degraded, there’ll be some sort of regional coalition to rebuild Gaza with Saudi, Emirati and Kuwaiti involvement and US security guarantees, a deradicalisation process for the Palestinians there, and the construction of a civil bureaucracy. The international community will be pouring in financial assistance, except that this time it won’t be used to build hundreds of miles of terror dungeons.
The West Bank is a tougher nut to crack. But Israel will have to deal with the Hezbollah Jihadis first.
Why would you trust the country that give uncondtional support to israel and it's allies to gouvern gaza. Gaza would become like the west bank where the settlers would rules
Israel has no interest in governing Gaza. It wants to maintain security measures but that's it.
The actual governing would be done by non-radicalised Palestinians alongside the Saudis, Emiratis and Kuwaitis, presumably some sort of council being formed and administration constructed from what remains of the civilian infrastructure of Hamas.
It is notoriously hard to find non-radicalized folks after repeatedly dropping bombs on their homes.
If that was genuinely Isreal's aim they would be limiting their intervention to targeted strikes or utilizing the Palestinian social apparatus to try and secure custody of the most extreme Hamas members... they'd also be rabidly going after any Isreali settlers threatening the peace process.
Genuinely trying to build a better civilian government (which is something I'm absolutely supportive of) looks a lot different than what we've been seeing.
IMO Netanyahu and most of his party don't really care if Palestinians live or die - they just want to make Gaza so inhospitable that they all flee as refugees so that Isreal can freely claim the land. With some very notable exceptions I think the preference is that no Palestinians die so that it doesn't look as bad on the international stage... though a few fucks literally want blood.
Sure. It was hard after WW2 with Germany and Japan. America literally nuked two Japanese cities, more or less wiping them from the map, killing hundreds of thousands of civilians, many orders of times greater than have been killed in this defensive war by Israel.
But we managed to do it.
We did in fact succeed in both countries in deradicalising them and now they're both thriving democracies.
This would only be true if you had literally zero clue about the extent of Hamas' physical embeddedness within the infrastructure of Gaza. They've had 17 years to turn the entire strip into a deathtrap. Particularly easy to do that when they don't care about Palestinian civilians. They're all just 'martyrs', as Haniyeh agreed.
Does Israel want a Palestinian state? No, not really. Especially not after October 7th. But it was willing to go along with that in the 1990s after the First Intifada made its point with dignity. In December 2000, they accepted President Clinton's offer to the Palestinians of a two-state solution, with a Palestinian state with a capital in East Jerusalem, some minor landswaps for the largest WB settlements, Palestinian airspace sovereignty, shared custody over the Temple Mount, etc.
The response was that Arafat walked away and launched the Second Intifada, a multi-year onslaught of wave after wave of suicide bombers, mass shootings, driving vehicles into crowds, bombing restaurants, and slaughtering schoolchildren. The Palestinians also had the distinction of inventing an entirely unprecedented form of terrorism: they pioneered the use of children as suicide bombers.
The Israeli left, which had pinned its colours to the 'land for peace' strategy which had worked with Egypt (Sinai) and Jordan, has never recovered from the Palestinian Second Intifada. The Intifada only ended when Israel created the walls and security checkpoints across and around the West Bank, the same thing which Palestinians today so hate. Well, guess what, maybe you should have made better choices..
So does Israel today want a Palestinian state? No. Why would they? They offered one in 2000 and got wave after wave of suicide bombers. They pulled out of Gaza unilaterally in 2005 and gave the Palestinians a democratic election. They elected Hamas, which culminated in October 7th, the single worst slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust. You've got the West Bank where the PA and UNRWA teach children how to count and do geometry by talking about firing rockets at Tel Aviv.
In a future scenario where the Palestinians were willing to live in peace next to Israel? Many Israelis would still say yes. But nobody in Israel thinks that's ever going to be the actual scenario, and if they did then October 7th more or less decided that one for them.
Israel realized that it's better to control gaza from the outside with the blockade
The blockade was instituted in response to the Gazans electing Hamas in free and fair, internationally monitored democratic elections, and then beginning to fire rockets at Israel, to try and reduce their ability to import weapons or components which could be used to create weapons.
There didn't even used to be a wall. Before Hamas, you could just drive from Tel Aviv to the beaches of Gaza and back with no checkpoints.
A lot of Palestinians miss those days. I'm pretty sure most Israelis do, too.
Gaza has restrictions from israel since 1967. The more tight restrictions get, the more hate there will be feom the affected people.
Sure. So what? For the next 10 years it averaged nearly 10% GDP growth per year.
I think this rests on a fundamental misunderstanding of the conditions in Gaza pre-October 7th.
Gaza was pretty wealthy. The average income exceeded that of their neighbouring Egyptians. Yes there were difficulties importing some goods or products, but it was rarely impossible for consumer goods. Plus, in the end, they (as we now know) had miles of smuggling tunnels.
That's one reason why Egypt started squealing when Israel began to move into Rafah. There were minimal civilian casualties, but the IDF discovered the vast tunnels, some big enough to move a tank through, between Rafah and Egypt.
The idea that everyone was sort of sitting around in tents and mud is nonsense.
They also received billions of dollars in international aid, which Hamas of course simply spent building weapons and terror dungeons. But many Gazans went to work in Israel, many went to university abroad, built decent lives. All undone because of Hamas, tragically.
Watch this tourism video by a Gazan from 2019. Does this look like a Warsaw Ghetto to you?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBo7i-TXy6s
Yes times could be tough. But times are often tough all around the world. Ask the Sudanese or the Ethiopians. They've got average incomes multiple times lower than the Gazans did. They didn't launch genocidal wars or broadcast TV shows for children calling for beheading al-Yahud.
Removed, civility.
Perfectly apt response for a person that thinks economic growth = right to invasion. But rules are rules so I understand.
Facts don't care about your feelings.
Ahh yes who doesn't know YouTube, the biggest facts collection in the world. Who cares about thousands of articles, works of reporters and research studies.
You are already blocked by now so don't bother replying. Also a 2 days old account that co incidentally started posting about recent UK riots in uk and Christian instances. You are an islamophope hiding under the cover of "antisemitism".