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Is Ismail Haniyeh's assassination a setback for Israel-Hamas peace talks?
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this post was submitted on 31 Jul 2024
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Any outcome where Hamas was permitted to live after October 7th or to govern Gaza was never going to be acceptable, and Hamas was unlikely to ever concede this.
Anything less than the end of Hamas would have been a terrible outcome for all sides. They’d regroup, rearm, and in a few years’ time they’d attack again, more civilians would die, and people would start clutching their pearls and warning about ‘escalation’. And in the meantime, the Palestinians in Gaza would have had to endure their brutal rule.
Once Hamas has been sufficiently degraded, there’ll be some sort of regional coalition to rebuild Gaza with Saudi, Emirati and Kuwaiti involvement and US security guarantees, a deradicalisation process for the Palestinians there, and the construction of a civil bureaucracy. The international community will be pouring in financial assistance, except that this time it won’t be used to build hundreds of miles of terror dungeons.
The West Bank is a tougher nut to crack. But Israel will have to deal with the Hezbollah Jihadis first.
Yeah it'll all blow over eventually once "Hamas" is gone.
If you're from the UK I'm guessing you're under 30 right?
Britain's cycle of exterminating Irish nationalists every generation and being surprised when the next generation hates you too would be familiar otherwise.
Well, no, not overnight. There'd need to be a denazification process similar to what took place in Germany and Japan after the Second World War. The only people who know how to do that with a Muslim population are the Saudis and Emiratis, who succeeded in deradicalising their own populations in the decades following 9/11.
They'd play a central role in managing the civil administration of Gaza while that was given time to show fruits. It would obviously be far too early for any sort of democracy in Gaza, but it's a goal to strive towards in the long term.
Please understand you live in a different reality to the rest of us, one where "Emiratis" had spent 70 years have their land and lives stolen before being "denazified", one where Saudi Arabia is a model to aspire to and definitely don't use violence to pursue their aims, one where Palestinians were somehow radicalised by anything other than the actions of Israel and Zionism.
Sure, I'm aware that I'm better informed on this than most people are who just rely on ambient vibes and prejudices. I'm not challenging that.
Neither the Gazans nor the Arabs of Palestinians have spent 70 years having their land and lives stolen. This sort of superficial analysis is commonplace in the West but bears no relation to the historical reality of the conditions under which the State of Israel came into existence.
The best account, drawing especially on the work of Benny Morris and more recent scholars, was given in a lecture by political analyst Haviv Rettig Gur here.
Ah yes, Japan, country that famously got rid of it's militant past rather than just ignoring it.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Reverse_Course&diffonly=true
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobusuke_Kishi