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Long-term planning requires climate projections beyond 2100 (www.nature.com)
submitted 3 months ago by silence7@slrpnk.net to c/climate@slrpnk.net
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[-] LarmyOfLone@lemm.ee 2 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Unfortunately we do still have a lot of oil reserves for like a ~~100~~ 47 years. Without oil we'd be forced to massively reorganize global trade and how we live and work.

[-] Syl@slrpnk.net 4 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

yes, that's the problem. We may still have 47 years of oil left (I think we have less), but the cost to extract it will rise, and the economy will take a hit. So yes, we have to reorganize or we won't have to only think about the climate...

[-] LarmyOfLone@lemm.ee 2 points 3 months ago

Yeah I also was thinking from another perspective another article:

As the world moves away from oil as an energy source, thanks to the shift to electric vehicles, according to BP's 2023 Energy Outlook Report, demand will likely plateau. In October 2023, for instance, the International Energy Agency said it expects oil use to have peaked by 2030, declining after that.

That means we could have enough oil for far longer than the longstanding 50-year projection.

So the status quo for things like tankers and big container ships needed for the current global trade and economic imperialism and also big warships and aircraft carriers and jet powered fighter drones probably won't change for a long time.

So there could be "business as usual or worse" for a long time. Or climate fueled conflicts could disrupt global trade and oil delivery much sooner leading to more conflicts. I guess you could make long term plans for such possibilities.

this post was submitted on 09 Aug 2024
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