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Report: Trump calls Harris a "bitch"
(www.axios.com)
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this post was submitted on 10 Aug 2024
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Trump has never won the popular vote, his 2016 victory was based on highly gerrymandered areas with low populations and a high number of electoral votes. America is being held hostage by wealthy donors.
Yet he was leading in popular vote pols for a solid 9 months before Biden dropped out. If Biden had stayed, he would likely have won the popular vote.
We’ll never know, the only “poll” which matters is the election.
A poll is just an estimate. Obviously we will never know. But were the election held a couple months ago (vs Biden) Trump would have about an 85% chance of winning according to the best statistical models. (Source: used to work as data scientist for a major pollster and obsess over this stuff for fun)
60% about
Problem is media reports on 60% as if it is a sure thing, when 40% is a really big chance…