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this post was submitted on 14 Aug 2024
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I came here to post exactly this. This line caused me to stop taking the entire article seriously.
The only thing working in Donald Trump's favor was that he was able to convince independent voters that Biden is too old to run again, and even that was only having limited success until that disastrous debate performance where Biden seemingly confirmed everything Trump was saying about his mental capacity. That's it. That's the only thing that had been going in his favor, and even then it was only significantly in his favor for a couple of weeks until Biden finally dropped out.
Once Biden dropped out, taking the issues about his age with him, Trump was exposed. Voters who were now able to see beyond Biden's age saw that Trump has nothing to offer them. Virtually everybody predicted what we're seeing, even if they didn't think it would happen this quickly.
The pollster is kind of right - on paper the economy should be an issue in Trumps favour. We've just come out of a period of high inflation and people are feeling the cost of living. Immigration is also supposedly an issue that should be favouring Trump.
That's not to say that Trump has the answers - he does not - but in a conventional election cycle he would be in the stronger position as the "outsider" attacking the incumbents.
Yet instead the entire news cycle is dominated by Harris and Walz at the moment. Republicans are desperate for Trump to get back "on message" but instead he's flailing around as his ego can't take the Dems attack lines, biden dropping out and Harris apparent popularity.
So although the pollster is obviously biased as a Republican, I think he's right in the sense this not playing out like a conventional election.
Also, I have to say as an outside observer from the UK, the excitement around Harris reminds me of Obama's first election. Obama came from no where in the primaries and huge momentum built behind him as the hope candidate. Harris has emerged much later in the election cycle, and oddly she feels like the exciting unknown candidate even though she is Vice President. Yet it does feel like the momentum is with her and she drawing in people who have been otherwise alienated by the republican / democrat arguments over the last 4 years.
I have no idea if it'll carry on to election day. But I must say on a personal note, the more I see of Harris, the more I warm to her. I suspect a lot of voters will feel the same. Her humour, and warmth are in stark contrast to Trumps meanness and petty nastiness. I'm beginning to think Trump is not capable of beating Harris.
Every day I'm waiting to wake up and read about the fever finally breaking and the collective illusion shattering about this. But she also genuinely acts differently (better!) now than compared to only a few years ago, almost like she's been spending the time as VP away from the spotlight secretly taking public speaking classes or something.
I really hope this momentum carries.
I think it's her now being in this role, it has changed her, and she has risen to the occasion. I don't think we could have seen this from her ever before because she wasn't in this situation. But now she's here and she's ready