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this post was submitted on 18 Aug 2024
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The more it goes, the more there will be pressure on the Russian forces to divert their resources there. It seems to be a relatively cheap way for Ukraine to alter the whole battlefield, fighting where they are stronger.
Thing is, Russia can just trade land for people.
Ukraine can't really threaten Russia as a whole, and the further Ukraine gets, the thinner and more vulnerable the supply lines will be. So the whole thing will eventually run out of steam and Russia can try to grind its territory back under its control.
Of course it's annoying and embarrassing for Putin, but letting it just fizzle out is definitely within his MO.
Ukraine doesn't have to threaten Russia as a whole.
Ukraine can already reach quite deep into Russia. As Ukraine advances deeper into Russia, the deeper can they strike.
It's not just cannon fodder that Putin has to redistribute. For example, hw much air defence do you think Ukraine will find the further they advance from the frontline in the contested areas?
Russia has to move air defence closer to important infrastructure in places they didn't have to protect before. That air defence has to be taken from somewhere. My bets are not on Russia having a shitload of air defence units elsewhere that they can afford moving away from wherever they currently are.
Every unit of Russian air defence moved from Ukraine back home to Russia is making Ukraine closer to attack the Russian supply lines of the front lines. That's just one of all the things Putin is facing right now because of Ukraine advancing into Russia.
You're right, Ukraine doesn't have the luxury of time and men but they are surely hurting Russia badly with what they have. Even if the risk of Ukraine losing more than just the contested areas is big, they do not sell themselves cheaply.
Russia will pay for years and years for the "3-4 days to Kiev".
My personal hope is that this is the end of the Russian Federation. It's an enormous country which has oppressed and subjugated a bunch of different cultural and ethnic groups to homogenize Russian society according to the leaders' ideals for a long time and I think it would be better if it was split into smaller countries that would hopefully allow for actual democracy closer to the people.
They don’t have or want to take Russia as a whole or even significant part. If they push the frontline east into Russia they may force Russia to give up control of parts of Ukraine in order to defend.
If they do this enough, they can start negotiating trade of land. If Putin refuses to trade Russian land for Russian-occupied Ukraine, it won’t look good to Russians.
Yeah but the time is ticking now for the lost Russian territory, so they can try and make retaking that more expensive :)
What is ticking? Putin doesn't care for either population or territory in the short term. There's nothing of value there, only the lost ability to bomb ukranian territory from Russia in that region.
And the embarrassment can be handled by his propaganda machine.
Money. The Ukrainians occupied a major gas distribution hub, and are set to occupy a nuclear power plant.
In any case, trading Kursk for Avdiivka does not seem like a good strategy on the long term either.