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Trump says he'll seek a new judge in election case
(www.cnbc.com)
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this post was submitted on 06 Aug 2023
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politics
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The chances of him getting a hung jury is actually incredibly high. I doubt they'll weed out all his supporters in jury selection. I honestly don't think they can convict him.
The only way he’s getting a hung jury is if Hunter Biden is called. /s Bazinga!
Math time! Let's assume that all people who make it to a jury have an X% chance of never voting to convict Trump regardless of the evidence. In order to be found guilty, trump would have 100*(1-X/100)^12 % chance of being found guilty and 100-last number of getting a hung jury. For reference, if X=10%, Trump has a 28.8% chance of being declared guilty.
But wait! There is more! More indictments! Currently three. Let us assume that if a case is hung, the prosecutor doesn't refile it. Let's take the amount we got from the last problem, and call it Y% of getting a conviction. The chances of all three being hung are (1-Y/100)^3, or 100*(1-(1-X/100)^12)^3. Again, let us assume X=10%, then there is a 37% chance that all three are hung, or a 63% chance that he goes to prison. More separate indictments mean more protections from MAGAs making on juries.