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this post was submitted on 24 Aug 2024
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I'm OOTL: is Soyuz no longer also an option?
Russia invading Ukraine has complicated any future dealings with them, especially when there’s a domestic alternative.
They've been transporting American space personal since at least March
Not sure what could have changed since, but when US/Russia relations at some of the worst levels in history, I'm surprised this last lingering relationship has held out as long as it has.
My understanding is that, in retaliation to US sanctions imposed at the start of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia stopped providing RD-180 rocket engines that were used in the Atlas V. My surprise is that the USA relied on Russian rocket engines to put national security payloads into space.
Prior to the war, relations between the US and Russia were relatively warm. Specifically, during the Bush War on Terror, Russia and China were active partners and enthusiastic participants in crushing "Radical Islamist Extremism".
I suspect you can trace the reliance on Russian rockets back to that period, what with the end of the Shuttle program and a confused path forward between administrations.
Russian industrial rocketry was both world class and dirt cheap, back during the late '00s.
The use of Russian engines on the Atlas dates back to a Clinton program after the collapse of the USSR. With the Soviet Union no longer able to pay its rocket scientists, it was thought that it was better that the United States pay them for their expertise rather than some other more hostile government gain access to their knowledge.
Interesting. Thanks for the info! I love learning about this stuff.
In case you know - was there some sort of exclusivity agreement the USA had for their Russian rocketry purchases? What would have prevented Russia from sharing their info with whoever they wanted, while still selling to the USA? Or was this agreement guided by political norms? Was the Clinton program named? I'd like to learn more about it.
The agreement between Roscosmos and NASA still exist. Each Soyuz mission to the ISS is carrying an American astronaut and each NASA mission is carrying a Russian cosmonaut.
The next mission with the Dragon was supposed to carry 4 astronauts, 3 Americans and 1 Russian. Now the capsule will only carry two astronaut to leave space for the rescue so only 1 American astronaut and 1 Russian will go up on the Crew-9 mission.
Source
SpaceX has a regular scheduled launch that's been sitting around delayed waiting for Starliner to leave the ISS, so kicking two people off it and replacing them with the Starliner crew is convenient and minimizes the schedule disruption.
Soyuz only has three seats and launching a Soyuz with only one crew or empty is something Russia hasn't done since the 60s and would be more work.
NASA is still doing a seat exchange and launching Johnny Kim on the next Soyuz in March, but it looks like it’ll be just Russians on at least the next 2 Soyuz’s after that
I'm just slightly less out of the loop than you, read somewhere it would take a bit longer than Space X but there is some kind of emergency rocket ready-ish.
I'll wait for people with actual information to correct me tho.