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this post was submitted on 04 Sep 2024
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As usual, national polls mean nothing without national elections, but lets see where we're at...
Arizona - Trump +1, +3, +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada - Toss Up - Harris +1, Trump +1, Ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico - Harris +7, +8, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Georgia - Toss Up Harris +1, +2, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
North Carolina - Toss Up Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Pennsylvania - Toss Up Harris +1, Trump +1/+2, ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan - Harris +3, +5, Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin - Harris +4, +6, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota - Harris +5, +7, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Arizona moves out of toss-up territory for the first time in a long time, moving to Trump.
Michigan is still with Harris, but slipping. Next round of polling could flip to Trump.
Let's look at the map:
So, of the "Undecideds", PA by itself puts Harris at 270. She could lose NV, NC, GA, AZ and still win with PA.
PA is NOT enough to win for Trump. That only puts him at 249. So he needs PA + 21 more. GA and NC are both 16, Nevada is 6.
So PA + any 2 other states, GA+NC, GA+NV, NC+NV.
If Trump takes PA and GA, and Harris gets NC + NV, she wins with 273. Same with GA + NC. 283 if she loses NV and takes GA+NC.
Much harder road for Trump to win here, but both of them absolutely must have PA.
God, I hate that we have to do this math to account for arbitrary electoral college nonsense at all, but you are doing a great job of making it as painless as possible.
I can't believe it's this close and I hate that Harris is starting to slip in some states. My heart can't handle another Trump presidency.
Then make plans to move out of the country. A close 2024 win for liberalism without solid leads in Congress means nothing but another nailbiter in 2028.
Moving out of the country is impossible for 99% of the people who would want to.
Who said anything about legally!
To where? Right wing fascism is on the rise pretty much everywhere.
Holy Kornacki, thank you for putting that together.
I don't even have a big board!
jordanlund is a Lemminal treasure.
I'm starting to question 538s predictions not because there is any problem with the models, but because there is a filter on what polls they choose to include. I don't want to call it bias, it's just a blind spot that their model isn't getting all the input for.
Of course it's not like anyone else is doing a better job either.
Polling is inherently problematic every time you see they polled "likely voters" as opposed to "registered voters".
If they're self selecting who they consider to be "likely", it's going to have a skewed result.
Likely voters are those that have voted before, that's what makes them likely to vote again. For the most part they're the more accurate people to be polling.
And discounts first time voters.
Some even only count people who voted in the last 2 elections.
Because new voters are a rounding error smaller than the error bars of the sample size.
Polling is pretty much like the unemployment rate. Any individual reading is meaningless, it's a multitude of readings over time that give any useful information.