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this post was submitted on 24 Sep 2024
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Israeli expansion draws a bigger fish into the conflict. Perhaps they start attacking Syria or Iran more directly. Perhaps they start bombing into Saudi Arabia or Jordan. Perhaps we see another collapse of the Egyptian military dictatorship due to unrest, and the replacement government isn't nearly as Israel-friendly as the current regime.
Then the US has to intercede. But as the US intercedes in the Middle East, it draws in more countries - fighting breaks out in Iraq to expel what remains of the US military presence, fighting breaks out between Greece and Turkey again as US naval assets are withdrawn from the region, Russia capitalizes on US arms assets slowing down in Ukraine and makes a big push into Kiev. The US has military bases all over the world, so you don't have to travel far in order to pull off a USS Cole style bombing.
You can see this spiral into a global conflict easily enough. We're already seeing low-key upheavels all through the central African states, the disputed territory of Kashmir, and the Chinese/Japanese contested ocean territories. When the Primary Imperial Power is engaged in too many fronts at once, that creates a lot of room for the various minor powers to reassert themselves.
Idk why you're getting downvoted, the risk of regional escalation is very well understood even in the US state department.
Saudi Arabia is an enemy of Iran in the region, and Jordan even helped Israel intercept Iranian missiles. Why would Israel ever attack its allies in that conflict?
And Israel has been expanding into the West Bank since like '67. What changed that that would suddenly 'draw in bigger fish' now?
China's been brokering peace negotiations with them for some time as part of its Belt & Road Initiative.
And Israel repaid the aid by bombing a Jordanian hospital in Gaza. Its a very one-sided relationship, heavily predicated on Jordanian security services being in bed with the IDF.
Not since the '48 Nakba has Israel been this aggressive with its expansion. This is in no small part thanks to the flood of Ukrainian and Russian refugees serving as fodder for settlements.
So what you're claiming is they first tricked Jordan in helping them intercept those Iranian missiles, and then went back in time a couple of months to spray some bullets towards that hospital without Future-Jordan being aware? That just sounds too incredible for me. Even if they have that technology there are a million better uses for it
Yeah you might want to look at the expansion after the '67 war first before you proclaim a couple of settlements are the most dramatic thing since '48, going to trigger WW3
No
Israel has already fought multiple wars with its neighbors, and the US never interceded (if by that you mean "sent US troops"). In fact, the whole purpose of arming Israel is partly so their soldiers do the fighting instead of Americans. I think the US expects Israel to handle Iran as it did Egypt, Jordan, Syria etc.
The US doesn't really care about Central Africa or Kashmir, it has no strategic interests in those regions. So any wars fought there (and again, there have already been a few) will be mostly ignored by the US.
The US cares a lot about China, so this is the only place it might send its own US forces. But those will mostly be US Navy, since it doesn't need to occupy new territory. And the Navy isn't really needed elsewhere.
The US has been sending military aid, military advisors, and military assets into the region around Israel for over 80 years. The US has stationed two different carrier groups to support the Israeli invasion of Gaza.
Right, which is why I specified "send US troops". That's not going to happen, so they remain available for a potential conflict with China.
The US sent two carrier groups in October. Both have already returned home.
Who do you think is manning those carrier groups?
They're on rotation. The USS Lincoln is set to replace the Roosevelt, which was replacing the Eisenhower.