Source toot: https://mas.to/@advisorybriefs/110872259818869083
Data source: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/
A community for discussing events around the World
Rule 1: posts have the following requirements:
Rule 2: Do not copy the entire article into your post. The key points in 1-2 paragraphs is allowed (even encouraged!), but large segments of articles posted in the body will result in the post being removed. If you have to stop and think "Is this fair use?", it probably isn't. Archive links, especially the ones created on link submission, are absolutely allowed but those that avoid paywalls are not.
Rule 3: Opinions articles, or Articles based on misinformation/propaganda may be removed. Sources that have a Low or Very Low factual reporting rating or MBFC Credibility Rating may be removed.
Rule 4: Posts or comments that are homophobic, transphobic, racist, sexist, anti-religious, or ableist will be removed. “Ironic” prejudice is just prejudiced.
Posts and comments must abide by the lemmy.world terms of service UPDATED AS OF 10/19
Rule 5: Keep it civil. It's OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It's NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
Rule 6: Memes, spam, other low effort posting, reposts, misinformation, advocating violence, off-topic, trolling, offensive, regarding the moderators or meta in content may be removed at any time.
Rule 7: We didn't USED to need a rule about how many posts one could make in a day, then someone posted NINETEEN articles in a single day. Not comments, FULL ARTICLES. If you're posting more than say, 10 or so, consider going outside and touching grass. We reserve the right to limit over-posting so a single user does not dominate the front page.
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
News !news@lemmy.world
Politics !politics@lemmy.world
World Politics !globalpolitics@lemmy.world
For Firefox users, there is media bias / propaganda / fact check plugin.
https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/media-bias-fact-check/
…since 1979
Edit: not saying there’s not a climate change disaster happening, but some of these analyses are a little misleading.
Except that to only say "...since 1979" is to comment in either ignorance or bad faith (your pick). We maintained record breaking temps ALL above the prior record for 36 is the damn point, and to miss that is to miss the entire thing.
There have been 44 years since 1979. Lets say the probability of getting 1 day above the 1979 record in a given year is 1/44 (uniform). The probability of even getting a week of the hottest days in one year would be (1/44)^7, would be a one in 300 billion chance. There are some issues and some assumptions I'm making for convenience, but its not ok to make idle comments with no comprehension of the scale of extremity this event represents.
As in, do you have any fucking idea how unlikely that is? This isn't an 'oopsie poopsie' funny record event.
Not to be too pedantic but your back of the envelope probabilities are based on inaccurate assumptions and probably several orders of magnitude off. Specifically, your not just assuming uniform but also independent from one day to the next. A more accurate treatment would be to assume conditional dependence from one day to the next (the Markov property). Once you have a record hot day, you are significantly more likely to have another record hot day following it.
That said, it’s still low probability, just not as low as what you’re saying.
Any thoughts on how I could incorporate that for a better back of the napkin?
(Also, that number is only consider that the number presented was based on 7 independent events, not 34)
If we stick with your 1/44 assumption, we can then assume 50% chance that the following day will also be a record setting day (probably too low still but the math is easier). Your one week estimate would be (1/44)*(1/2)^6.
While the data presented here only goes back to 1979, I seem to recall that some scientists worked out global average temperatures based on coral reef core samples and ice core samples. I think there were some other samples too but I can't remember what they were. So they are the hottest ever
I can't find any indication that 1979 had a 36-day heatwave with anything approaching the temperatures we're seeing.
I think the significance of 1979 is that's when we started keeping track of an overall global temperature day by day...
Not terribly significant. The length, number of heat records broken, and sheer catastrophic scale of this heatwave is unprecedented. We don't have any reason to think anything remotely like this has happened in human history, and the fact that we didn't have the means to track the entire planet's average temperature prior to 1979 doesn't negate that.
Hawaii is on fire. Oregon is on fire. Canada is on fire. California is on fire. The winter in the southern hemisphere is unprecedentedly warm, and much of Australia burned over their summer. It's going to burn again.
This is an emergency.
For the hell of it, I checked the list of hottest temperatures recorded and the top for the US was in 1913, Sweeden 1933, Russia 2010, and Germany/France 2019 (for just a small selection of countries). Very few were from this year and many weren't even in the last half century.
https://en.wikipedia.org//wiki/List_of_weather_records#Highest_temperatures_ever_recorded
You're downvoted because you're comparing one day record temp to a full month of record highs.
Also, a large part of the reason the global average temperature is high is because the Southern hemisphere is having a very warm winter.
Comparing global average to local max temperatures is also wrong.
Much of eastern North America is having a relatively cool summer thanks to the smoke from the Canadian wildfires. Temps in my area have barely broken 85F/30C all summer
Oh good, maybe the smoke from everything being on fire will cool us down!
/s