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this post was submitted on 25 Oct 2024
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politics
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Looking at the fivethiryeight predictions pages, Trump already has a lock or lean right on 262 votes, and Harris is at 226. Harris has to take Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan or its over, and her voters are in disarray and are half hearted while trumps always vote stronger than polling indicates. It looks to be effectively over unless Harris makes some big changes to energize her base. She's sure as hell not going to get anything by pissing off even more people by digging rightward, but I'd bet real money that thats what she will try.
If she'd pledge to stop the weapons flow on day 1 she'd have the race, but she wont do that, for whatever reason.
I think she’ll take Michigan.