The Blowout No One Sees Coming (app.vantagedatahouse.com)

submitted 1 week ago by dragontamer@lemmy.ca to c/politics@lemmy.world

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Hopium? This blog is suggesting an incredible margin of victory for Harris.

VDH is the website. They are outright calling respected meta-polls FiveThirtyEight and RCP completely wrong. Their overall argument is that the Senate-race is incredibly favored in the Democrat's favor.

I don't know if I necessarily believe that argument. But its still interesting to think about. Discuss?

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[-] just_another_person@lemmy.world 14 points 1 week ago

Been saying this for months. While exit polling is the only useful polling coming into this, all of the signs from previous battleground states since 2018 says everything will skew Dems. Moreso since all the abortion and other terrible SCOTUS bullshit happened.

I'm putting these bets down:

Everything VDH says here, but swap AZ and FL
Ted Cruz loses to Collin Allred
Osborn picks up the Nebraska seat
Every Abortion Access amendment passes
Dems take House

[-] dragontamer@lemmy.world 10 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Florida going for Harris is a huge wtf in this blog post. It's a bold prediction far against every other poll I've seen.

If Harris wins FL, then Trump is just completely fucked.

Mind you: FL is basically Trump's home state as New Yorkers dont like him, and Mar-a-lago resort was his main base of operation in 2016. I find it very unlikely for Trump to lose FL, even with all the points brought up in this blog post.

[-] scarabine@lemmynsfw.com 2 points 1 week ago

According to some of the forecasts I’ve seen that suggest a strong chance for a Harris win (as in, 77% chance) she only has a 3% chance to turn FL blue. So, not really plausible, but there are a few scenarios that see her winning it.

[-] just_another_person@lemmy.world 2 points 1 week ago

Well, it makes sense, on one hand, but not in another.

Where it makes sense:

the population centers are pro-Dem.
DeSantis is wildly unpopular with everybody.
FL businesses benefit from immigrant agriculture workers only second to CA.
Abortion is on the ballot

Where it doesn't make sense:

Gerrymandered County distribution basically makes electing Harris basically impossible right now
People have been moving away from the coastal cities
An influx of MAGA people moving to FL

It's less likely to happen. Not impossible. AZ is way more likely.

[-] the_tab_key@lemmy.world 6 points 1 week ago

Gerrymandering has nothing to do with the presidential election.

[-] kata1yst@sh.itjust.works 6 points 1 week ago

It does when your nearest polling station is across town. This is one of the many games they play in districting.

[-] the_tab_key@lemmy.world 2 points 1 week ago

Yeah, but that's "easy" to do without gerrymandering as well.

this post was submitted on 27 Oct 2024

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