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this post was submitted on 28 Oct 2024
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What do you predict Turnout being this year? 2020 was 65.9% of the VEP(Voting Eligable Population). The lowest in the internet era was 2012 at 58%. Average is 2004 and 2016 at 60.1 and 59.3 each, 2008 was the previous high at 61.1
That would be an interesting pool to join in.
It's a million Venn diagrams of a million different problems. It's hard to even guess what ones would be more significant.
You've got his impending jail time if he doesn't make it in. That's likely going to activate a bunch. You've got the incels and misogynists. I'd say you'd have a pretty decent percent of the most ardent Gaza supporters, and certainly some of them will go third party, But knowing that if Trump makes it in he will absolutely throw as much support as possible to netanyahu... They're in an absolutely miserable situation but I don't know that they would be in a hurry to make it worse.
Of course on the other side you've got Cheeto Jesus saying he's going to be dictator on day one, He's going to prosecute an imprison other people he's threatened donors. He's patronized Hitler's and Hitler's staff. He's pretty much insulted and activated everybody on the other side to be scared to fucking death that he's going to make it in. I have to think that all counts to activate us. I have to think that all the rambling and incoherent speech he's giving is feeling to activate them at least a little bit on the other side.
But the poles, their poles. I was behind a fuck nut yesterday with a Trump 2024 make liberals cry again bumper sticker. I've never wanted to get out of my car and scratch wahhhh snowflake on some dick heads tailgate so much
It's also good to note 2008 being second highest was hard carried by Obama, McCain was not pulling record numbers. 2020 was both parties breaking their all time records(though proportionally they both fell a bit short of 2008 Obama). Personally I smell 2008 style numbers. Post-COVID means less people free that day and a bit less wall to wall election exposure, and while Harris is more charismatic than Biden she's not Obama(Obama wasn't even supposed to be picked in 2008, but he came in so hard and strong they gave him a shot and he mauled Hillary. Kamala wasn't fighting her way through a primary she was never supposed to win in a trial by fire like Obama).
Also states have shifted in one way or another. Nevada was the bluest state in 2016 and 2020, only swing state to go blue both times, only one of the modern swing states Hillary held(albeit in 2016 Virginia and New Hampshire and New Mexico were considered Swing States too). This year it's looking to be a lot more red...hopefully...if it's still the bluest state that's game over already. Abortion doesn't sell well there, state is more male, and it's mostly older so the women there aren't super passionate. That and they got hit by COVID and Inflation really really badly and No Tax on Tips is popular. Meanwhile Wisconsin(traditionally the reddest of the rust belt) is being reigned in by Tim Walz to a degree and has been the bluest at several points while Michigan(the bluest state Trump won in 2016) is slipping a bit due to Arab voters.
Calling it being around 2008 Levels, but not 2020 level.