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Fuck Cars
A place to discuss problems of car centric infrastructure or how it hurts us all. Let's explore the bad world of Cars!
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If the transit is both free and faster than driving, there would defintely be a change, especially if driving costs starting increasing like parking fees or congestion pricing after the transit is built.
People care about their time and their money, you make a change that can save people both and many will change their habits. Sure you might not get the coal rolling truck drivers onto a train but you could get average commuters to change with a few incentives.
No, the majority isn't actually in the position to care for either. They simply have no choice and take the single option they have to get from their home to the job that allows them to keep said home.
You are missing a step before there can be any discussion what option people will prefer.
Once the transit is built you still need to provide some incentive to make people switch. People use bus routes as an excuse to not waste tax money on transit because they see it as ineffective. This is partially because most bus routes are significantly less convenient and slower than driving.