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this post was submitted on 11 Nov 2024
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politics
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"We can't push policies that cause deflation! That will cause people to put off buying things and cause a economic recession, which will cause more deflation leading to a neverending ending spiral! Lets just hold inflation to 2% per year and hope people's jobs eventually given them raises."
We have been putting off buying things for years! Houses, cars, cloths, food - if the price goes down, no one will go 'oh, I'm going to wait a bit longer and see if it goes down more'. No, we will buy like crazy! Every administration that ruled over this inflation spike - be them left wing or right wing - has seen their electoral chances tumble. But god forbid we see even a hint of deflation.
The main problem is that people don't understand that the Vice President does not set monetary policy. Neither does the President. The Federal Reserve is supposed to be completely immune to political pressure. Fortunately, King Donald will do his best to put an end to that.
I happen to believe that the current policy was correct, and averted even worse problems - but that does not happen in a matter of months. If Trump somehow fails to fudge up the trajectory we are on, he will get to take credit for policies enacted during Biden's presidency (again, not by Biden, but nobody will care).
Deflation just doesn't happen in a bubble though.
From my understanding the primary lever that can be pulled for this is the Fed interest rate. With a high interest rates you're trying to decrease the amount of money institutions spend and rather increase the amount that they invest/save. As it becomes easier to make money by buying bonds than by reinvesting into your business. This in effect removes money from the economy.
The problem here is this means businesses also spend less on salaries, thus triggering layoffs. This then also has a downward pressure on inflation as the working class ends of being layed off as unemployment rises. This puts more and more pressure on businesses to cut costs as more and more people have less disposable income to spend.
This is the downward spiral that's being referred to here.
In effect you can't create defationary policies without causing high unemployment, at least in a capitalist society.
Take a look at the history of the Great Depression and the New Deal that helped the U.S. get out of it. Effectively the government had to create jobs to stimulate the economy as businesses couldn't or wouldn't shoulder that cost but the government could. As disposable income rose, so did spending and in turn inflation turned positive again as unemployment fell.