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[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 42 points 1 year ago

Anybody who thinks the west is doing this to help Ukrainians needs to stop smoking crack. There was even an article a few days ago that actually admitted that the west knew Ukraine lacked the resources to do the offensive, but forced them into it anyways:

When Ukraine launched its big counteroffensive this spring, Western military officials knew Kyiv didn’t have all the training or weapons—from shells to warplanes—that it needed to dislodge Russian forces. But they hoped Ukrainian courage and resourcefulness would carry the day.

The big question is how the west gets out of this debacle now. Having spent two years propagandizing the public, it's hard to do a 180 on the spot. A lot of politicians have their careers staked on this war, and if Russia wins decisively then they're going to be politically toxic at that point. They asked people to make all these sacrifices saying it would be worth it in the end, and now the end is coming and it's not what they said it would be.

My prediction is that they're going to throw Ukraine under the bus saying that Ukrainians lied about the state of the war, and maybe they're gonna remember about all the nazis too all of a sudden. Framing all this as the fault of Ukraine seems like the only solution at this point.

[-] CicadaSpectre@lemmygrad.ml 25 points 1 year ago

I've been under the impression Ukraine was an explicit trap for Russia, to draw them into a quagmire war they couldn't really avoid, and that the West intends to draw it out for as long as possible to tie up Russian resources and possibly even break them through attrition.

Ukraine's current regime has become aggressive towards its Western paymasters, hyped up on their own fascist rhetoric if their politicians are anything to go by, and they're losing bad, proving they're an unreliable and dangerous ally. However, I don't think they'll be thrown under the bus quite yet. I suspect, if NATO's puppet regime can't win, they'll just turn the region into a terrorist state. Whatever government Russia sets up there will need constant Russian military support, and this will be used as propaganda of how Russia "conquered" Ukraine. Fascist resistance, heavily armed, will be trained, supplied, and directed by NATO for years to come, shown as "freedom fighters", while every action Russia takes to keep its borders secure - or even to help Ukraine against fascist terrorism - will be skewed and displayed as tyranny.

In other words, the US will do what it does in every country it fails to install its puppets. At least, that's my prediction. But who can say?

[-] Buchenstr@lemmygrad.ml 17 points 1 year ago

The thing is the russian MOD and putin have plainly, and explicitly said that they would not occupy ukraine and set up a government, and that they would not pay for any of the damages in the war. The russians have only held the russian speaking areas in ukraine, and there's a good reason for this. The imperial core wanted to russia to fight a occupation style war, similar to how the soviets fought in afghanistan. But the SMO has been conducted completely differently, the russians fight a defensive war, and force the ukrainians to be on the advance. Ukraine cannot win the war in a situation like this.

[-] CicadaSpectre@lemmygrad.ml 11 points 1 year ago

If that doesn't change, then it's less resources and risk holding the Russian-speaking areas, but the West will try and stir the pot in the area. I don't think we'll see them simply abandon fascist assets just to use them as scapegoats. I think they'll keep anti-Russian terrorism going in the region as long as it takes to force Russia to get involved again.

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this post was submitted on 12 Aug 2023
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