Vampires need to ask permission to enter and physically can't without permission. Can the 'can' be read in both senses here?

To imagine you wrote this sentence by purpose.

[-] TempermentalAnomaly@lemmy.world 6 points 3 days ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

I care about my friends. I care about their goals, concerns, trials, joys, and more. I listen and I dig deeper. If I don't care about what they did, I ask questions that reveal how it made them feel.

Now that's a lot of emotional labor, but for a select few confidants, I am more than happy to that work. It bonds us and makes each other feel seen and connected.

Voodoo Donuts in Portland used to have a contest for stacking donuts on your peen.

Here is the paywalled Economist article and an archive that does a poor job of capturing the image.

From what I'm reading if may have some positive effect on voter share and possibly a negative effect on voter turnout. And that positive messages have have a positive effect on turnout. Isn't that the claim meme?

And, historically, Democrats win with greater turnout. At least as far as I'm aware.

Disclaimer: I've only spent 20 minutes on this. A properly measured response would take longer.

References

How Much Do Campaign Ads Matter?

The researchers found that, in the 2000 election, allowing only positive ads would have increased overall voter turnout from 50.4 percent to 52.4 percent. Meanwhile, airing only negative ads would have decreased turnout to 48.8 percent. The gap between the all-positive and all-negative scenarios was about 10 million voters.

“That’s pretty big,” Gordon says. “It does suggest that negative ads might have a detrimental effect” on election participation.

The Effects of Negative Political Campaigns: A Meta-Analytic Reassessment

This 2007 meta analysis is the most recent meta analysis I could find. It throws into question both claims, that negative ad have a positive effect on voter and negative effect on turnout. There's been a lot of studies since then, but this still gets cited.

The conventional wisdom about negative political campaigning holds that it works, i.e., it has the consequences its practitioners intend. Many observers also fear that negative campaigning has unintended but detrimental effects on the political system itself. An earlier meta-analytic assessment of the relevant literature found no reliable evidence for these claims, but since then the research literature has more than doubled in size and has greatly improved in quality. We reexamine this literature and find that the major conclusions from the earlier meta-analysis still hold. All told, the research literature does not bear out the idea that negative campaigning is an effective means of winning votes, even though it tends to be more memorable and stimulate knowledge about the campaign. Nor is there any reliable evidence that negative campaigning depresses voter turnout, though it does slightly lower feelings of political efficacy, trust in government, and possibly overall public mood.

Positive Spillovers from Negative Campaigning

Negative advertising is frequent in electoral campaigns, despite its ambiguous effectiveness: Negativity may reduce voters' evaluation of the targeted politician but may have a backlash effect for the attacker. We study the effect of negative advertising in electoral races with more than two candidates with a large‐scale field experiment during an electoral campaign for mayor in Italy and a survey experiment in a fictitious mayoral campaign. In our field experiment, we find a strong, positive spillover effect on the third main candidate (neither the target nor the attacker). This effect is confirmed in our survey experiment, which creates a controlled environment with no ideological components or strategic voting. The negative ad has no impact on the targeted incumbent, has a sizable backlash effect on the attacker, and largely benefits the idle candidate. The attacker is perceived as less cooperative, less likely to lead a successful government, and more ideologically extreme.

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You're only 78 years old Little Squirt!

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[-] TempermentalAnomaly@lemmy.world 30 points 4 months ago

Is it possible for your partner to get a job with health insurance while you get your business up and running? If not, the ACA website, healthcare.gov, is your best option. When filing, you won't declare your income from when you had a job. Try to make your best guess. If needed, claim it to be $0 and then plan on paying it back when you file your taxes using the 1095-A.

If you don't have an accountant, get one. Talk to them before leaving your job. They know the ins and outs of these things. They should be one of your first trusted advisors. If you don't know how to pick an accountant, read Small Business Cash Flow by Dennis O ' Berry.

[-] TempermentalAnomaly@lemmy.world 30 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

Nickeled and Dimed by Barbara Ehrenreich is one person's decent. It was awful for her.

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cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/14210696

The two percentage points of vote share that Mr Trump has gained since 2020 come from three sources. The largest group is people who supported Mr Biden last time, but are now undecided, backing minor candidates or not planning to vote, who outnumber those making the same shift from Mr Trump’s camp. These voters account for 0.9 points of Mr Trump’s two-point improvement. Undecided former Biden voters are slightly younger, more likely to be black or female and less likely to have attended college than repeat Biden voters.

Mr Trump also enjoys an edge among people entering or returning to the major-party electorate. The share who say they did not vote for either him or Mr Biden in 2020 but have now settled on Mr Trump is 3.7%, slightly above the 3.3% who are choosing Mr Biden. This group adds another 0.3 of a point to Mr Trump’s tally.

The final group, swing voters, is the smallest but also the most impactful. Because people who flip between the two major-party candidates both subtract a vote from one side and add one to the other, they matter twice as much as do those who switch between a candidate and not voting at all. Such voters are rare—just 3% of respondents fall into this category—but Mr Trump is winning two-thirds of them. With 2% of participants shifting from Mr Biden to Mr Trump versus just 1% doing the opposite, swing voters contribute a full percentage point to Mr Trump’s two-way vote share.

The most intriguing pattern in YouGov’s data, however, is probably an equally powerful factor that has nothing to do with ideology. Compared with committed partisans, swing voters are vastly more likely to have children aged under 18: 47% of those flipping from Mr Biden to Mr Trump and 40% of those switching the other way are currently raising children, compared with 22% of repeat Biden voters and 19% of consistent Trump ones. And once the effects of race and parenthood are combined, the disparities are striking.

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When writing a comment, you can preview it. I didn't see this feature when making a post.

Also, spoiler markdowns weren't rendering in Boost when I tried using the menu insertion. I've seen other posts and comments with spoilers, so I'm not sure what's happening.

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submitted 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) by TempermentalAnomaly@lemmy.world to c/news@lemmy.world

The two percentage points of vote share that Mr Trump has gained since 2020 come from three sources. The largest group is people who supported Mr Biden last time, but are now undecided, backing minor candidates or not planning to vote, who outnumber those making the same shift from Mr Trump’s camp. These voters account for 0.9 points of Mr Trump’s two-point improvement. Undecided former Biden voters are slightly younger, more likely to be black or female and less likely to have attended college than repeat Biden voters.

Mr Trump also enjoys an edge among people entering or returning to the major-party electorate. The share who say they did not vote for either him or Mr Biden in 2020 but have now settled on Mr Trump is 3.7%, slightly above the 3.3% who are choosing Mr Biden. This group adds another 0.3 of a point to Mr Trump’s tally.

The final group, swing voters, is the smallest but also the most impactful. Because people who flip between the two major-party candidates both subtract a vote from one side and add one to the other, they matter twice as much as do those who switch between a candidate and not voting at all. Such voters are rare—just 3% of respondents fall into this category—but Mr Trump is winning two-thirds of them. With 2% of participants shifting from Mr Biden to Mr Trump versus just 1% doing the opposite, swing voters contribute a full percentage point to Mr Trump’s two-way vote share.

The most intriguing pattern in YouGov’s data, however, is probably an equally powerful factor that has nothing to do with ideology. Compared with committed partisans, swing voters are vastly more likely to have children aged under 18: 47% of those flipping from Mr Biden to Mr Trump and 40% of those switching the other way are currently raising children, compared with 22% of repeat Biden voters and 19% of consistent Trump ones. And once the effects of race and parenthood are combined, the disparities are striking.

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cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/14025725

It’s a significant reversal from recent history: President Joe Biden is struggling with young voters but performing better than most Democrats with older ones.

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It’s a significant reversal from recent history: President Joe Biden is struggling with young voters but performing better than most Democrats with older ones.

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submitted 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) by TempermentalAnomaly@lemmy.world to c/news@lemmy.world

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/13897979

Survey finds a fraying Democratic coalition as Trump gains among young and minority voters

https://archive.is/vW5Go

Original poll and archive

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submitted 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) by TempermentalAnomaly@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

Survey finds a fraying Democratic coalition as Trump gains among young and minority voters

https://archive.is/vW5Go

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[-] TempermentalAnomaly@lemmy.world 41 points 7 months ago

Oof...

You are the voice of authority. Your words can wound.

[-] TempermentalAnomaly@lemmy.world 38 points 7 months ago

I know this is way later than I or anyone whose been screaming for ceasefire wished for, but I'm so glad something has changed. I hope this is the just a start.

[-] TempermentalAnomaly@lemmy.world 40 points 8 months ago

"It is better that one hundred innocent college students fail a class than that one guilty college student write a paper with AI." - Benjamin Academic

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TempermentalAnomaly

joined 1 year ago