Gas furnaces achieve about 96-98% efficiency. Heat pumps achieve 300-400%. So you have to factor that in.

There's still a cost difference but the hope is for governments to start supporting serious nuclear energy to drive down electric costs. It'll take time but natural gas will become less economical as decades go on especially with investments.

Yeah, depends where you live. Saskatchewan is the worst place, Quebec is the best.

I'm in Manitoba and am kind of in the same situation. Even though our electricity is really cheap, it's still more economically efficient to use natural gas. Coupled with just buying a new furnace and air conditioner, I don't see myself getting one anytime soon. I'd still be happier if we subsidized electric heating/heat pumps (or stopped subsidizing fossil fuels so much) but recognize I'm in a place where I can afford that and many others simply can't.

Yep, doesn't make economical sense here yet. Better to put money towards air sealing and (the right kind of) insulation.

Some heat pumps work by running pipes deep underground.

unless I am very much mistaken this is only true for air source heat pumps. If you're in a cold environment I would expect you'd want a ground source heat pump instead, although the installation cost for that will be significantly higher than air source.

Mine works fine.

they still struggle under -20C. Which is not abnormal for many places in Canada

Yes, but that's why heat pumps in this country are typically paired with auxiliary electric heat. The heat pumps still contributes some amount, even at -30 or below, but the electric "tops up" the pre-warmed air that the heat pump makes.

And that is only really needed for a couple of months out of the year, even in places like Winnipeg or Edmonton.

20-30 years ago, the heat pump technology wasn't as capable, and couldn't do the job as well, but they have improves quite a lot since then.

I have a heat pump and furnace combo. The heat pump works extremely well down to around -10C. Below that it takes a very long time to move the needle by half a degree. The furnace doesn’t kick in until the thermostat sees the house temperature trending in the opposite direction it’s attempting to achieve.

Unfortunately, its method of determining the time gradient of temperature is rather moronic and doesn’t take the temperature schedule into account. This means every morning when the schedule calls for higher daytime temperatures (even by just half a degree) the thermostat freaks out thinking that the house is cooling rapidly and kicks on the furnace to bring up the temperature.

This causes the system to needlessly run the furnace every single morning. It annoys the hell out of me but I don’t know what to do about it. Aftermarket thermostats aren’t very common around here (Canada).

Central heat pumps have built in electric heat in cases the heat pump alone isnt sufficient.

Even if the heat pump isnt enough all the time, its still better than heating with oil, electricity, gas, etc. exclusively.

It isnt an all or nothing situation.

Last conversation I had on Reddit years ago a guy in Ottawa had data that showed that he was drawing heat during near -40C.