Alright, gonna be a skeptic.

We're seeing an Israeli news source followed by an IDF statement with IDF evidence, so a conflict of interest does exist with these sources, though that doesn't mean either is lying. That being said, if Israel did deliberately target a hospital in Gaza with as many eyes on Gaza as there are, that'd be a really fucking stupid move. At the same time, If they did, lying and completely fabricating everything is in their highest interest. At minimum, though, I think that any trustworthiness one would associate with journalists or military Intel be thrown out, and the evidence be viewed with skepticism

There is also some oppositely damning evidence in circulation. GeoConfirmed apparently did their own locating of where the video occurred, and - if accurate - from the videos perspective, the missile was moving northwest, from the direction of Israel. They are also A third party in this, though, so their bias is not immediately determinable from this one tweet, nor can the factuality be easily confirmed.

We're still in the fog of war, and simultaneously a war for our minds and support is being waged. I am going to wait for more information from more parties to arrive.

EDIT: I previously stated the tweet I linked claimed the missile was moving north east, which it doesn't - that's my misphrasing. The tweet I linked specifically repeats the falling shrapnel story - though the evidence they show shows the camera looking southeast, with the missile coming from said direction towards the camera. I've rewritten it to be more clear.

Alright, let's get an independent to verify, but it's looking pretty damning for Hamas at this point.

Okay I actually made the effort to listen to the Audio and took a look at those photos.

The two men in the audio recording are talking about a misfire that happened directly behind the hospital - from a nearby cemetery to be exact.

https://bit.ly/3S4xqiG

On the other hand you attached a picture that shows a rocket launch site that is quite a long way from the Hospital - or is this the cemetery those men in the voice recording were talking about?

https://idfanc.activetrail.biz/ANC18102023984

Are you sure that this is the right picture?

Very compelling evidence, especially if it gets verified. They even adressed the question mark of it being more damage than these groups usually do when their missiles hit. It would be very high stakes lying, but then again, this is a high stakes situation. Whoever did that has a lot of innocent blood on their hands.

Does anyone have sources on what kind of missiles Palestinian groups typically have access to? I think that would be very useful in evaluating the claims being made.

So this here is the current view on the area where supposedly about 500 people died. Also there are allegedly more than 300 wounded.

Questions I personally have:

• where is the rubble and where is the bomb crater?
• why does the building seem undamaged?
• how do you fit 800 people in this parking lot?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/oct/18/israel-hamas-war-live-news-gaza-hospital-west-bank-update-joe-biden-visit-protests-latest-updates

I wonder where all the people from yesterday are now...for them it was damn sure Israel and if you made the mistake to publish this second opinion or made the suggestion to wait for other sources your were downvoted into oblivion...

But also with this new source I would wait until it is verified independently. I really like this approach from our german news station Tagesschau, where all news get a label until they are verified by different, independent sources. Makes fake news a lot less common.

So, what I gather from this thread and others:

Islamic Jihad, a group separate from Hamas and not getting missiles from Iran, cobbles together their own home-made rocket made out of duck tape and twine and fires it at Israel. The rocket, unsurprisingly, falls apart and part of it falls on the parking lot of Gaza city hospital, killing about a dozen or so people. Hamas rushes to the scene and asks how many are dead. Gaza hospital says 500 - 12 from the missile and 488 from the ... you know siege and food/medicine blockade.

Hamas knows that the IDF has targeted this hospital before and had no doubt that they would it again, and since the missile didn't come from them, releases a press release saying the IDF bombed a hospital and 500 are dead. This makes President Abbas call off his meeting with Biden and throws a wrench in the peace process, just what Hamas wants.

The IDF initially just say "Hamas did it," and if you disagree we've got this new law that jails reporters for saying bad stuff about Israel. Then they release a video footage of a different rocket barrage that has nothing to do with anything. Biden comes over and goes: "Come on, this isn't the cold war, it's the information age. We've got like 10 live web cams throughout Gaza city streaming, OSINT probably got it. If you didn't do it, there ain't any reason to lie about it."

Of course, that is just what I got from Lemmy, so probably a mix of propaganda from both sides. Feel free to yell all the corrections in the world in the replies.