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We know. All of this is very horrible
And incredibly predictable. I lost friends ten years ago when I said this is exactly what would happen.
Yeah, my sister thought I was a doomsayer for predicting it after Jan 6. She doesn't think that anymore now that she's driving her Hispanic friends' kids to school so they don't get kidnapped by the government.
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The simulation also projected that the judiciary would be of little help to any state that found itself in the president’s crosshairs.
“We concluded that in a fast-moving emergency of this magnitude, courts would probably be unable or unwilling to intervene in time, leaving state officials without meaningful judicial relief,” Finkelstein explained. “State officials might file emergency motions to enjoin the use of federal troops, but judges would either fail to respond quickly enough or decline to rule on what they view as a ‘political question,’ leaving the conflict unresolved.”
So that panned out as predicted... (pdf of 8th circuit of appeals rubber-stamping the continuation of ICE violence on innocents)
Especially now as courts were forbidden from nationwide injunctions. That decision was a huge betrayal and the fact that media has not told us that just further proves they are failing in their jobs across the board.
Oh fuck I forgot about that. That's going to effectively balkanize the states as the reds pass more and more talibangelical legislation.
American friends: None of you deserved this. Watching this shit from the sidelines is insane. Somehow you have normalized it. Like a frog in boiling water. Europeans are turning away now. Everything is about to get really fucking ugly.
The GOP normalized this. They brute forced Trump in as a candidate the second time around. It didn't matter if he joined the primaries or not, he was going to ballet no matter what.
Remember that our alliance was born in the blood of our grandfathers. My grandfather died in old age from old shrapnel causing a bleed. He was shot diagonally by a machine gun with bullets hitting leg to shoulder and then grenaded. Other scout with him shot dead through the neck beside him.
Be warned! What is happening here is a pathogen. Those within will need each other.
I'm pretty sure that's actually the point.
They want violence so they can justify themselves. Because if it ever gets to the point where these monsters are in front of a judge they're going to need some justification or they're going to have a bad time. They knew this, or at least some of them know this, and therefore are trying to manufacture consent.
This is blindingly obvious. Everything this administration do is basic, they have the political strategies of a toddler who is having a tantrum because he's not being allowed to drink bleach. In trump's case, literally.
The Second American Civil War started with the murder of George Floyd.
Open civil war is starting right now.
Well worth a read. Phases of the American Civil War:
A "2nd" Civil War would just be going from a cold to hot phase of the same conflict, ongoing since the 18th Century
https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2014/09/phases-of-american-civil-war.html?m=1
We never made them take down their idols and they were able to name buildings after their generals. They kept their flag. We incubated them.
Now, that's not to say that stopping all of this would have fixed it, there are still Nazi's in Germany and they were really good at suppressing that bullshit.
Did the first one ever truly end? You've had people waving the Confederate flag since the North "won".
This is the price of doing half a job.
I’d argue it started in 2010 with the occupy Wall Street movement. It made oligarchs nervous and start us down the road we are on currently.
Open civil war is starting right now.
Has this term "civil war" just lost all meaning along with "literally" and "gaslight?"
A civil war is definitionally when two internal armies of a country fight on a large scale.
We do not have that, we do not have an army. Organized protests turning violent are "civil disruption" or "destabilization" at worst. We're about a century off from this turning into a "civil war" because there would need to be opposing armies.
I get that it feels viscerally satisfying to imagine actually firing weapons at these assholes but we're not in that world yet. They have the system, they have the national guard and other armed forces. They have most of the police and most of the justice system.
If we want to change this, we do it with community and organization. In the words of one powerful protestor in Minneapolis: "The democrats will not save you. The republicans will not save you. Nobody is coming. Only your neighbor will save you." We have to get back to community and organization or this will go from isolated protests and unrest to a quiet, locked-down nation of people too afraid to move LONG before it turns into an actual war. Despite what grifters on both sides want you to believe.
I despise these headlines and stories, it's just attention-baiting, and you're all falling for it because you want to see change happen but you don't know how to get there. There are better ways to get there, but they require involvement in some boring shit. I'm sorry and I wish there was a better answer for this.
edit: here, this group has had a hand in electing the most recent wave of progressive and socialist state leaders and mayors around the country. They need volunteers, they need people to help them. It's not as fun as imagining throwing molotovs at feds, but it does a lot more good:
https://www.progressivevictory.win/
Reminder that Mussolini was not overthrown by a ragtag band of plucky rebels, he was handed over to the opposition by his own government and arrested by the king of Italy himself as political pressure grew and the establishment feared the approach of allied nations. Pressure and politics still moves mountains, and even if we had that band of armed rebels, we would need politics to figure out how to live next to the millions of people who didn't vote for a coup or civil war. Lets fix this by starting in our communities and do a Mamdani-Effect across the whole country. It will kick the legs out from this current kleptocracy.
I think being a "century off from civil war" is a little disingenuous. Things are too tumultuous right now to predict what things will look like in 4 years, let alone 100.
I think we're currently in a time of dramatic transition that will go one of two ways: full on opposition from a coalition of states against the current regime, or total capitulation that will likely only be broken by foreign intervention. This of course relies on Trump not backing down or anything that would be reasonably expected to de-escalate the situation, but with him and the current Republican party, I am not willing to give them any benefit of any doubt. I've been around Republicans my entire life and fit into the disguise of "straight white guy" very well as a kid. I know what they say when they think they're amongst like minds. I saw it all the way back in 2000.
I don't know if you would technically define it as civil war, but I believe the systems are in place for such a conflict to occur if the current situation were to "go hot" and states were to decide to mobilize their national guard regiments/reserves and (for lack of a better word) "nationalize" the military assets within their borders. A schism in the military could very well happen at that point with individual units placing their loyalty with either their states or the federal government. The feds may control the country on paper, but thanks to state's rights, much of the daily workings are purely at the digression of the states. The highway system is federally owned, but it's the state DoTs that maintain them and the states that patrol them and allow access for trade and commerce between their borders. As easily as we have checkpoints along the borders with Mexico and Canada, states could fashion along the interstate transit corridors and strangle the flow of goods and people between regions.
I do think the most likely scenario though is total capitulation by the state governments in favor of a justice that will never come from the courts, and I expect to see a growing movement of armed militia groups akin to the Black Panthers and leftists drifting further into militant extremism as trust in any sort of rule of law continues to erode under the continuing circumstances. Weapons are too easy to get or to make here for groups to not emerge. The FBI spends 50% of their time putting down white supremacist militias - or at least they did before 2016.
But I don't believe that we're "a century off" from civil war because I think the government will break long before then and whatever exists here in 100 years won't be the same as the US as we think of it today. It will be a Roman Empire vs Holy Roman Empire kind of thing imo. The same people living in the same dirt, but a government pretending to be a nation that once stood in the same place but has since vanished into the annals of history.
They already said this is the second American Revolution that will be bloodless if the left allows it to be. They have already declared war in July 2024. For fucks sake! That was the heritage foundation! They are running the fucking government now!
Wake the fuck up already. Quit lecturing and pay the fuck attention!
You’re not wrong about community but you’re wrong to play down the fact they have already declared war on the United States!
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Awfully peaceful cival war you've been having sir. Iran be wanting some of that peaceful civil war action, can you serve it up for them?
Maybe it’s been peaceful for you, however I imagine the citizens of Minneapolis would heartily agree that this feels anything but peaceful.
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That’s what they want
Actually, they don't. If a civil war started, it would likely end with the death of some billionaires and rightfully so. Ideally they want to deport and detain more people before starting a Civil War. If they do it too soon, they won't have the numbers to win. So please let them be stupid enough to do it too soon.
I'm ALL for 8 dead billionaires instead of decades of more governments becoming enshitified by the tech these clowns control.
Whether a Civil War starts now or later...it isn't an if anymore, it's a when and I think we need to accept this and prepare / organize accordingly.
Its always been when, capitalism is hostile to the mass of society, its also based on infinite extraction in a finite world.
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Yeah, why do you think Trump is doing this?
the regime offers us two choices:
- organize and fight in the civil war they're so thirsty for
- get genocided
It's the same choice, why else do you think they want civil war so badly?
one involves organizing a resistance effort with your neighbors to keep vulnerable members of your community of your safe
the other involves saying "i don't appreciate being killed" as you're killed
USians seem to be pathologicaly blind to everything that doesn't involve them shooting each other, it's like some kind of curse you'all have. Nobody can even imagine that there is something between politely talking and a civil war. How are you still alive as a country and individually is a great mystery
i've been pleading the world around me to stop the shooting for 19 years now. an overt fascist wing is running the country now. we missed the opportunity for polite discussion i'm afraid.
i said in another comment that where we are right now is that 1/3 of the country, the 1/3 in control, fully plans to kill the other 2/3 of the country. 1/3 of the country is working to slow or stop them. a remaining 1/3 doesn't understand this is happening.
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I am so happy I’ve been training for the last few years physically and with fire arms. Just wish I was able to locate a MRAD sooner.
These are similar to the tactics used before the full invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Masked and umarked paramilitary performing any destablizing action on an opposing political group. The excuse is just immigration but it's clear the longer term goals are "regime change". People in these areas need to accept that they are already at war. Financial, political and militarily with a large collection of states backing the Federal regime. Many of those states have literally deployed soldiers to other states under the false justification of enforcing immigration laws. Even if they deport every immigrant, they will stay and continue to accelerate these plans. Ukraine has shown how a smaller force can challenge a larger one. It's only a matter of time for those under occupation look to Ukraine and their asymetrical use of drones and other kinds of warfare to begin fighting back. They will not leave voluntarily and once they are out of immigrants to target, they will target other groups. Time to be clear about what is happening and respond accordingly.
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this post was submitted on 22 Jan 2026
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