Was in a company wide meeting yesterday. The cto was talking about OpenAI being too big to fail.
I have a take on that. I'm going with hank green on this one. https://youtu.be/jOR4wuiPeEQ
The entire US economy is being held up by the ultra-wealthy right now. We should be in a recession, but they're pushing all the right buttons in all the right places to keep stocks where they need to be to keep running.
The AI bubble isn't blindly bobbing around on the top waiting to pop, it's orchestrated. Yes, it's a bubble. Yes the stated value there isn't anywhere near real. But it's not going to pop until they let it. Investors are going to stay with it as long as they're not scared of it going away and the ultra rich are using it as a vehicle to maintain wealth and unless they somehow screw up, it's not going anywhere until they decide to do something different.
OpenAI isn't too big to fail, but the Industry as a whole is too well-funded and tightly controlled to let it fail, for now.
Stupid question, but since the world is currently falling over itself to make new business connections/alliances and is moving away from investing in the US economy because the clown president likes to threaten his allies, how long will the US economy last as the world slowly abandons America? Because while the movement may appear slow right now, I am actually experiencing this extreme change in the world order to be happening super fast. The effects may not be felt over night and maybe not even in ten years, but what trump has accomplished in one year, will most likely have a very negative impact on the US economy for decades and decades to come. Because we ain't fucking coming back. That's for sure.
Not a stupid question at all, but so far in the weeds of speculation that we couldn't get a straight answer out of it with a 24 pack of beer, a d100, and a really good DM. But let's ponder.
The nature of international trade and finance is screwy AF. It's like finance for the rich, where the only money that exists is what people owe to you and what you owe to people. Noting ever changes hands, not to say that it would soften the blows but it does make the effects move more slowly than one might want.
If it were just the international fall of Apple, Microsoft, and Google, along with the standard bits and bobbles of alcohol, and whatever 100 other odd consumer products we actually still manage to produce in the states, I don't think that'll hurt us as much as whatever eventually happens to with AI. A single day of military production probably outstrips most of that. While it's possible that other warmachines can ramp up to quell the hunger of everyone for world destruction and weapons for self-preservation, I suspect once the current series of aggressions, fiasco,s and administration disappear, the US war machine will still find plenty of buyers, though the menu will likely change as we'll no longer seen as a reliable ally. Food and Oil/industrial exports will likely fluctuate, at most. I suspect they'll be forced to sell at a discount. If tourism doesn't recover, that'll beat the F out of a lot of places. We might see Vegas go fallout style.
I'd love to see European alternatives for Apple, Microsoft, and Google. I'd import that in a hot second.
Honestly, If the world really wanted to see the US burn, they could just stop trade altogether. The time to restructure food, coal and oil would be enough to starve out a lot of the population, even if we're relatively close to self sustaining, none of those channels are setup.
Imaine the calls for blood when you can't get produce out of season and avocados become $15 each.
Not that I don't wanna teach USA a lesson, but I feel like stopping all trade would be like shooting yourself and a bipolar bear each in the foot in an attempt to see who bleeds out first. Answer: nobody bleeds out and everybody is pissed, especially the bear.
Also, I think USA gets a lot of avocados from California farms and Mexico so those might stay cheap regardless.
Definitely displace/replace the tech giants though. Monopolies suuuuuck.
Ah so a market upset the rich control the timing for, virtually indistinguishable from a bubble unless you're holding all the cards, amazing analysis by HanK Green.
2008 called. They want their huge bailouts back.
The big guys will be fine. Your 401(k)? Fucked.
OpenAI is small fry compared to the other AI players. They are the least likely to get a bailout.
This is actually a moment where "Thanks Obama" applies, what a precedence to set... Should have given the relief on the demand-side, not the fucking banks.
Still waiting for that crypto pop. It seems less relevant nowadays, but judging by Bitcoin's current price, it hasn't quite popped.
Sure hope my GPU is built to last.
It's an ongoing scam for the ultra wealthy and Tech Bro influencer con artists.
That's not an exaggeration. That's what it is.
Hence, it will keep going as long as it keeps getting boosted across media.
It’s because they keep securing their loans with eachother’s loans, it’s all negative numbers though
I hope not, that's basically what 2008 was. We could at least get a new reason.
Capitalism doesn't breed enough innovation for new reasons. That's why they need AI, to come up with new bullshit.
The way AI works, wouldn't they just get the old bullshit, but reworded each time? With a side of hallucinations ofc
🌍🧑🚀🔫🧑🚀
Sort of, except this time instead of it being millions of homes about to be foreclosed on its like 10 multibillion dollar companies, so the real problem is who is positioned to buy those companies when their share price crashes and they need to be sold for peanu.. fuck it's Trump isn't it? In 2 months we'll be using MicroTrump Werd to write reports and Tesla Xsell to build spreadsheets, but only when we can navigate our way through a minefield of vibecoded slop and ads for ICE.
My personal bet is we get a turbo great depression and a near total flattening of the economy as well as USD being worthless than literal monopoly money.
You jest but USGov already owns 10% of Intel, the seal's been cracked, and it'd be a suitably fascist move.
“We are 20 years away from Fusion Reactors”
– Scientists 60 years ago.
There is no incentive to invest into Fusion technology, as it would make crude oil, coal, rare earths, other rate metals and minerals lose a lot of value. The graph you show is still very interesting and I never saw that before, so thank you for sharing.
"We are 20 years away from Fusion if we get X amount of money"
– Scientists right before recieving less than 1% of X amount of money.
If we spent as much on fusion research as we do on killing each other we'd have cold fusion in under a year.
I'm no scientist, but i'm pretty sure there's a giant fusion reactor in the sky. I think it's called The Sun or something like that.
Also known as a deadly laser
This annoyingly bright object in the sky is a giant fusion reaction, but not a fusion reactor
The tech bros have been disastrously wrong about the future of technology twice since Moore's Law broke and the endless treadmill of computer upgrades stopped: about crypto and about the metaverse. They're desperate to not be wrong again, and they think that by spending enough money they can generate a reality distortion field that actually makes overhyped AI financially feasible. So they're going to keep pumping the money in as long as they've got it. But even their wallets are finite.
As someone who has regularly used virtual worlds for 20 years, the whole Metaverse thing was so hilarious.
Like, Facebook did not invent 3D online worlds, there are 3D online worlds older than Facebook.
"But wait, metaverse is not just 3D Virtual Worlds."
Which inecitably leads to "ok, so its just "The Internet".
As for the "Constantly being wrong." At somepoint, these people forgot that "having an idea" does not mean "Having a useful idea." You hear arguments about all these flash in the pan bull shit concepts like "People said the same thing about the internet or the iPhone." Yeah, and they said the same thing about a dozen other new idea that time forgot for every Internet or every iPhone idea that took off. Not every idea is "the next big thing". Statisrically, most ideas are "Not ever a thing."
As for the "Constantly being wrong." At somepoint, these people forgot that "having an idea" does not mean "Having a useful idea."
Absolutely. They can't fathom anymore that, just because they want something, it doesn't mean that anyone else does. Or that they're not already getting it, even if they do.
You hear arguments about all these flash in the pan bull shit concepts like "People said the same thing about the internet or the iPhone."
Right, and I always think, "both of those solved actual problems that hadn't been solved before." Problems that I remember feeling, as a person who was conscious in the 90s: the need for quick, efficient, long-distance information transfer, and the problem that computers were stuck in your house when a lot of what you needed them for was while you were walking around.
Cryptocurrency didn't solve a problem that most people feel (and, I would argue, it didn't efficiently solve a problem that anyone actually has). The metaverse didn't solve any new problems at all (as you noted, the one thing it could do that anyone wanted was something that was already being done). And AI was already being used for anything it was good for long before Sam Altman convinced a dozen billionaires to give him multiple small-countries'-GDPs.
And since being a good businessman really means finding a solution and offering a product that solves it, they're just proving how bad they are at business.
I'm getting real sick of the headlines. "Science company says AI will be used to Re-Write the human genome, and identify future Terrorists for the CIA with only random lists of birth certificates, while it designs a 3D printable human heart that has built in wifi controls with 100% police access!"
You have unleashed the cursed gif upon us
I closed my eyes and visualized AI execs in the cab when it hits.
It was beautiful.
AI has the momentum only from investors and banks. But unfortunately, the paying customers are few and far between. Also, don't forget that these companies are losing money even on the paying customers. There doesn't seem to be any path to profitability for these companies. So, no wonder everyone is saying it's a bubble.
I thought it was also considered a bubble because so much money has been invested in all those projects now that couldn't possibly return any revenue in 100 years or so.
It's even worse than that, because the more users they have the more expensive the tools are to run. It's the opposite of how economy of scale is supposed to work. I forget the exact numbers but apparently for every dollar they make they lose 2 or 3x that.
Every new iteration of their models is also exponentially more expensive to run. They desperately need the output to improve because of how inconsistent it is, but doing that only increases the money hemorrhage.
There's basically no way out from what I've been reading about it.
I use AI some, but if it vanished, it woukd not change anything and I would just go back to my okd ways.
Also, my two cents, the biggest hinderance is how prudish they are, because they are disgustingly prudish. How many but tech pushes worked because of porn? Most of these mainstream AIs just shit the bed at the most PG tier conversations or actions. Basically, the current push by the hugely conservative nanny state is clashing with these people's desire to push this stuff into the Mainstream.
https://youtu.be/HAkCypsQIQk this video has the ending if anyone is cursed by this gif
If anyone edging from the gif wants to finish here is the time stamp: https://youtu.be/HAkCypsQIQk?t=246
What was it, Sam Altman can stay irrational longer than you can last between klarna payments?
The sad thing is that when it bursts it won't do it in a hilarious "billionaires all get shafted" way like it didn't any of the previous times. It's far more likely to take the form of the most powerful AIs suddenly only being accessible to the wealthy.
It will burst because billionaires decided to get out. They will know just before it happens and time their exit perfectly. Everyone else will suffer and then they will buy right back at a massive discount. They have all the information, the fastest movement, and control of the levers. I refuse to play this unwinnable game.
Lemmy users waiting for AI to stop working because it'll start training on AI generated content
I fear it never will, because I suspect whoever is pushing for all of this dissident tracking on the Internet is propping it up with dark money.
Edging me fr fr
The lead-up is a bit long, yeah.
But the crash at the end is worth the wait.
More like, the AGI that those CEOs are saying will solve all the world’s problems as long as we keep giving them billions of dollars and more data centers.
Post memes here.
A meme is an idea, behavior, or style that spreads by means of imitation from person to person within a culture and often carries symbolic meaning representing a particular phenomenon or theme.
An Internet meme or meme, is a cultural item that is spread via the Internet, often through social media platforms. The name is by the concept of memes proposed by Richard Dawkins in 1972. Internet memes can take various forms, such as images, videos, GIFs, and various other viral sensations.
Laittakaa meemejä tänne.
