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submitted 14 hours ago by MicroWave@lemmy.world to c/world@lemmy.world

If Iran’s leaders believe U.S. strikes threaten their hold on power, they may opt to launch large-scale retaliation aimed at causing American casualties or disrupting the oil industry in the Persian Gulf, former U.S. officials, foreign diplomats and experts say.

Although weakened and facing a domestic crisis, Iran’s regime still has substantial firepower that could inflict damage on American interests and allies in the region, disrupt the global economy and trigger a protracted conflict in response to a U.S. military attack, according to former U.S. officials, foreign diplomats and regional analysts.

The prospect of Iranian retaliation has factored into Donald Trump’s deliberations over whether to order a military attack in Iran following strikes on its nuclear program in June, as well as discussions between the U.S. and its allies in the Middle East, according to current U.S. officials.

While Iran retaliated in June against Israel and a U.S. base in Qatar, it stopped short of more dramatic actions that could have caused casualties among American forces or destabilized Persian Gulf economies. Iran’s response to U.S. military action could play out very differently this time if Trump makes that decision, the former officials, diplomats and analysts said, particularly if Iranian leaders perceive a threat to their survival.

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this post was submitted on 24 Feb 2026
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