Yeah that's a good summary, and I think there's a sense of urgency now with Iran entering BRICS because they will no longer be able to sanction it effectively. US is losing grip on the whole region, and Israel is their last loyal outpost there. I expect they're gonna throw a hail mary and hope for the best.

If they do, it's likely going to be an even bigger debacle than Ukraine. This will be a direct war between US and Iran with being US depleted from a year and a half in Ukraine. US doesn't understand Iranian capabilities well, and it's pretty clear that people in charge aren't capable of making rational decisions. Hopefully this doesn't spiral out into WW3.