How the fuck is Russia going to supply 50k troops by air? And how are they going to continue that while people are actively shooting at them? And how is a force of 50k troops, equipped with what I can only assume is the dregs of the dregs of the cold-war reserves, supposed to beat the entire polish/Lithuanian military, even without a thousand european jets dropping bombs on every dogtrail between the border and Moscow.

The main problem of the war would be how to divide up the land between Lithuania and Poland, and me learning the word for "Koningsberg" in two more languages.

A literal pipe dream.

Glad NATO is taking this seriously though. Makes Trump being rejected at the ballot box even more important.

I'd call it a wishful thinking, but I think that if things do go their way, they will absolutely try it.

1. Russia calls up 200,000 more troops

On top of the 200,000 he just did in Nov? Or the 500,000 he did in April? Or was it the 450,000? I don't think it is going to make a difference unless Russia deploys something new.

1. It launches a spring offensive against Ukraine.

Note: Also have to win the spring offensive, which Russia is still not able to break through. That might change if Ukraine doesn't get it's funding.

1. Cyberattacks against Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, and stiring up Russian nationals who live in those nations

Note: This was the Ukrainian attack plan too.

1. Using those Russia nationals as a pretense for saying the (Baltic?) are rightfully theirs a military exercise called Zapad 2024 is launched with 50,000 Soldiers moving into Belarus.

When they say Russian nationals, they mean, using the local population in further meat wave tactics. Whether they want to or not. Either way, if Russia has gotten to this point, then 50,000 is still a very low number. It is going to take a lot more.

1. Taking advantage of the transition period after the US election Russia claims "Border conflicts" forces it to take control of the (Suwalki Gap?)

Basically he expects there to be discord during the elections no matter who wins or loses. Hypothetical at best.

1. War with nato. In 2025

And all of this is supposed to happen in less then a year. Outside of China and India joining the conflict, or Russia Pulling out a new super weapon, it's a plan, but it takes into account so many layers and "what ifs" that by the end you are left with a sliver of predictability at best.

I'd bet on winning the lottery over Russia's wishful thinking.

Every professional military war games like this. Non story.

*Baltics

The poor Belkans can't catch a break

Number 7 happens as soon as number 5 happens.

I also guarantee you after Russia's poor showing in Ukraine that NATO's planning on holding the gap.