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Political consultant points out 'Nate Silver is paid by Peter Thiel' after 538 projects Trump victory (www.alternet.org)

submitted 2 months ago by return2ozma@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

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[-] friek@sh.itjust.works 50 points 2 months ago

Nate isn't associated with 538 anymore.

[-] BlameThePeacock@lemmy.ca 41 points 2 months ago

And the article points out that the new group he is associated with is partially owned by Peter thiel

[-] Maggoty@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago

His job at Polymarket and his blog are separate.

[-] fahfahfahfah@lemmy.billiam.net 23 points 2 months ago

Also 538 is predicting a Kamala win…

[-] Maggoty@lemmy.world 48 points 2 months ago

He uhhh... He isn't associated with 538 anymore...

But sure

[-] nifty@lemmy.world 30 points 2 months ago

It doesn’t matter if Thiel pays him, fact is that the electoral college has a real danger of being fixed for Trump IF people don’t turn out to vote

[-] HelixDab2@lemm.ee 27 points 2 months ago

Nate Silver is good with odds, regardless of who he works for. This whole article is a genetic fallacy; it's saying that it's wrong just because he's funded by someone that supports Trump. There's no counter-evidence, although there's a counter-claim, that also doesn't have strong evidence.

As of 10 Sept., FiveThirtyEight is giving Harris a 56:44 edge over Trump. Personally, I tend to believe FiveThirtyEight a little more over all, because they're looking at and weighting many different polls. But these odds are way too close for comfort, given that Clinton was favored to beat Trump 6-4 the day of the 2016 election.

If you don't want Trump to win, get out there and vote, and make sure everyone that leans Harris knows that they need to get out and vote on 5 November, and make sure your Republican friends get out there and vote on 6 November.

[-] Twinklebreeze@lemmy.world 16 points 2 months ago

Nate Silver is no longer with fivethirtyeight.

[+] HelixDab2@lemm.ee -20 points 2 months ago

Yes, I fucking well know that, because I listen to Galen Druke on the FiveThirtyEight podcast every fucking week. I know exactly how long he's been gone, because I've been listening to the podcast for that long. There is nothing in my statement that implied that Silver still worked for ABC News or FiveThirtyEight; my statement only says that FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a lead that's barely outside the margin of error, and, as the pollsters that appear on the podcast frequently say, it's simply not clear how well current polls are capturing what's actually going to happen on election day.

So make sure all your Republican friends get up bright and early on Wednesday, 6 November to vote for Trump!

[-] ganksy@lemmy.world 16 points 2 months ago

Why wasn't the fact that Nate Silver is not affiliated with FiveThirtyEight your opening sentence? It didn't occur to me, until the parent comment, that you were not arguing for FiveThirtyEight. As an aside, I, and no one else here, were privy to the fact you listen to some podcast.

[-] HelixDab2@lemm.ee 0 points 2 months ago

Because it doesn't have to be. They're two different thoughts. Hence the paragraph break. Moreover, I note in my first goddamn sentence that Silver is good at odds regardless of who he works for. That clearly implies acknowledgement that Silver is working for an organization funded by Thiel, rather than for an ABC affiliate.

[-] nkat2112@sh.itjust.works 20 points 2 months ago

That explains the recent news.

Meanwhile, let's all be sure to vote.

[-] Kusimulkku@lemm.ee 1 points 2 months ago

How does it explain the recent news?

[-] AmbiguousProps@lemmy.today 19 points 2 months ago

who cares what the pollsters say, just fucking vote

[-] abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us 6 points 2 months ago

The other takeaway I'd have from this is - if Nate Silver is correct then it's a warning sign to Dems. There's a need to go out to the swing states and tweak policy positions and messaging to win over voters there to get the numbers back up and get a stronger win - one strong enough to translate into a win in the EC.

[-] abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us 4 points 2 months ago

I'm confused. The article doesn't make clear the distinction between 538 (owned by Disney with Nate Silver no longer involved) vs Nate Silver's new (and paywalled) Silver Bulletin.

[-] realcaseyrollins@thelemmy.club 0 points 2 months ago

Funny how that didn't matter until he said something positive about Trump's chances at winning the election 😂

[-] ultranaut@lemmy.world 4 points 2 months ago

It did to some people, I've been seeing shade thrown at him about the Thiel investment for awhile now. Its getting more attention recently but I don't think its fair to characterize things the way you have.

this post was submitted on 11 Sep 2024

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