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submitted 1 year ago by silence7@slrpnk.net to c/climate@slrpnk.net
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[-] nbailey@lemmy.ca 4 points 1 year ago

Yes, it’s an El Nino year which will push the global average up a little more than normal, but this really is the new normal. Since the new maritime fuel regulations to reduce sulphur dioxide came into effect about three years ago, the stratospheric aerosol concentration has reduced to the point that its cooling effect is waning. There’s nothing holding back climate change now, and we’re getting the full effect like never before. Of course, there will still be some variation in the annual mean temperature, but the line is going up from here on out.

[-] silence7@slrpnk.net 6 points 1 year ago

'normal' implies some sort of new stable state, when it's not stable

[-] Nunya@lemdro.id 1 points 1 year ago

From the article:

Nothing ‘normal’ about it A lot of commentary uses the framing of a “new normal,” as if our climate has undergone a step change to a new state. This is deeply misleading and downplays the danger. The unspoken implication of “new normal” is that the change is past and we can adjust to it as we did to the “old normal.”

So it may truly be the new normal, but they don't want you to say that for fear of getting complacent and unwilling to do anything about solving the problem...got it.

[-] silence7@slrpnk.net 8 points 1 year ago

It's more that things haven't stabilized because people are still dumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere:

this post was submitted on 13 Sep 2023
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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

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