"It’s far from clear if the Ukrainian strategy will succeed."
This sounds ridiculous when you consider Ukraine just launched a failed counter offensive while Russia has been operating under a very conservative doctrine. How are they going to exhaust an enemy that's been methodically conserving it's energy this whole time?
They're losing the war at a rapidly increasing rate. But they have to spin it as a victory. They've been claiming this entire time that the Russians are throwing massive amounts of men and materiel at them in human waves. It makes sense to keep using that claim and say that Ukraine is cleverly exploiting the dumb Russian tactics to increase the attrition rate.
Of course that all falls apart even if you only read western media, if you read further than the headline. The reality is an underequipped, under trained, under staffed UAF being sent to the frontline in their mass. Pretty much the opposite of what's advertised. You're not supposed to remember that Russia has air superiority and at least a 3:1 advantage in artillery and drones. You aren't supposed to see the military cemetaries in Ukraine adding hundreds of thousands of new plots.
You're just expected to forget all that, and believe Zelensky when he says that there have been less than 40k casualties, and Russians are throwing themselves on the brave Ukrainian bayonettes. Then this makes sense.
They're betting Ukraine has more people than Russia has ammo (and related equipment) they can supply to the front. How is this real life? How can people say they "support" Ukraine and then tacitly approve of Ukrainians being snatched off the street and sent to the front as literal cannon fodder?
I liked how Michael Hudson explained it recently on Geopolitical Economy Report, he said the strategy for Ukraine was based on flawed narrative based decisions and the mistaken belief that the Russian economy was weak and would collapse.
Therefore actual military strategy was always out of the question as the goal was not winning but grinding things out until the Russians deal with Putin for us.
Understanding this plan requires layers of delusion beyond the more obvious lies about Russia not being provoked. After all it can be understood that seeing this conflict defensively, Russia cannot opt out of the Ukraine war due to a change in risk versus reward. If it were a land grab this might be possible. But there hasn't been an effective change in risk versus reward for Russia either. Instead, the time limit is on Europe, as Russia's economy is strengthened by the global realignment to the south.
They are just employing the good old Zapp Brannigan strategy.
"You see, killbots have a preset kill limit. Knowing their weakness, I sent wave after wave of my own men at them until they reached their limit and shut down."
All the while, they claim it's Russia that's engaging in "human waves" tactics