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2024 Presidential Election Megapost! (lemmy.world)

submitted 1 day ago* (last edited 6 hours ago) by jordanlund@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

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Edit First vote is in! Dixville Notch, New Hampshire!

Tie Vote 3-3!

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/05/politics/dixville-notch-new-hampshire-2024-results/index.html

"Dixville Notch voters have supported the Democratic nominee the last two presidential elections, with the township in 2020 unanimously casting five votes for President Joe Biden and with Hillary Clinton in 2016 winning four of seven votes — two went to Trump and one to Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson."

This thread is for the Presidential election, my plan is to start marking wins as soon as they are called, sorted by time zone.

Some states are going to take longer than others. Polls generally close at 8 PM local time, but they can't start counting early/mail in votes until after the polls close.

Wisconsin in particular has an interesting system where ballots are collected by MUNICIPALITY, not precinct, they have over 1,800 ballot counting locations and don't report until ALL 1,800 are in.

https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2024/10/22/wisconsin-voters-election-milwaukee-security-denier

Currently 232 EC votes from Blue States:

4+19+10+7+3+3+4+10+11 +4+14+28+4+3+13+54+12 +10+5+8+6

93 EC votes from Battleground States:

10+16+15+16+19+11+6

Which leaves 213 EC votes in Red States.

9+6+6+6+8+6+10+5+3+7 +3+40+30+11+8+17+9+11 +4+3+4+4+3

270 to Win.

Online map here!

https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/

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[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 19 points 1 day ago* (last edited 6 hours ago)

8 PM Eastern / 5 PM Pacific
Puerto Rico -
United States Virgin Islands -
(D 7 EC Votes) Connecticut -
(D 3) Delaware -
(D 3) District of Columbia -
(R 30) Florida - Partialy Eastern
(BG 16) Georgia -
(R 11) Indiana - Partialy Eastern
(R 8) Kentucky - Partialy Eastern
(D 4) Maine - Proportional
(D 10) Maryland -
(D 11) Massachusetts -
(BG 15) Michigan - Partialy Eastern
(D 4) New Hampshire - Dixville Notch 3-3 tie vote.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/05/politics/dixville-notch-new-hampshire-2024-results/index.html
(D 14) New Jersey -
(D 28) New York -
(BG 16) North Carolina -
(R 17) Ohio -
(BG 19) Pennsylvania -
(D 4) Rhode Island -
(R 9) South Carolina -
(R 11) Tennessee - Partialy Eastern
(D 3) Vermont -
(D 13) Virginia -
(R 4) West Virginia -

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 15 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

2 AM Eastern / 11 PM Pacific
(D - 4 EC votes) Hawaii -

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 15 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

9 PM Eastern / 6 PM Pacific
(R 9 EC Votes) Alabama -
(R 6) Arkansas -
(D 19) Illinois -
(R 6) Iowa -
(R 6) Kansas - Partly Central time
(R 8) Louisiana -
(D 10) Minnesota -
(R 6) Mississippi -
(R 10) Missouri -
(R 5) Nebraska - Proportional Partly Central time
(R 3) North Dakota - Partly Central time
(R 7) Oklahoma -
(R 3) South Dakota - Partly Central time
(R 40) Texas - Partly Central time
(BG 10) Wisconsin -

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 13 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

1 - 2 AM Eastern / 10 - 11 PM Pacific
(R 3 EC Votes) Alaska -

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 13 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

11 PM Eastern / 8 PM Pacific
(D 54 EC Votes) California -
(D 12) Washington -

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 13 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

10 PM Eastern / 7 PM Pacific
(BG 11 EC Votes) Arizona -
(D 10) Colorado -
(R 4) Idaho - Partly Mountain Time
(R 4) Montana -
(BG 6) Nevada - Partly Mountain Time
(D 5) New Mexico -
(D 8) Oregon - Partly Mountain Time
(D 6) Utah -
(R 3) Wyoming -

[-] TransplantedSconie@lemm.ee 2 points 1 hour ago

Fucking Dixville. You guys had no problem voting for Biden, but half can't vote for the colored lady. That's a bridge too far.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 1 points 1 hour ago

4 Republicans and 2 Undecideds.

[-] TransplantedSconie@lemm.ee 2 points 1 hour ago

GröpenFührer said he's going to use the military against the US citizens.

That alone from all the crazy shit he's said should result in an immediate 6-0 vote for Harris.

[-] RememberTheApollo_@lemmy.world 1 points 1 hour ago

I’m working in a pretty much outside information-free environment until almost 11pm tonight. Really glad to not have a window seat to this rollercoaster. Cast my vote early, so my duty is done.

[-] return2ozma@lemmy.world 1 points 3 hours ago

First results are in. 3 for Harris and 3 for Trump in Dixville Notch.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/election-day-officially-begins-harris-trump-tie-dixville/story?id=115504033

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 1 points 3 hours ago

3 hours to the next. Gyam, Northern Mariana Islands, but no EC votes.

[-] WrenFeathers@lemmy.world 5 points 5 hours ago

Thanks so much for doing this Jordan. You’re very appreciated!

[-] return2ozma@lemmy.world 6 points 6 hours ago

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 3 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago)

Here we go! Last run through the polls before the election!

Arizona - Trump +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada - Trump +1 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

Georgia - Toss-Up - Trump +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

North Carolina - Trump +2 to +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

Pennsylvania - Toss-Up Harris +1/+2 to Trump +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Michigan - Toss-Up Tie, Harris +1 to Trump +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin - Toss-Up, Harris +1/+3 to Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Plotted on the map:

Advantage is with Trump in this scenario.

Assuming he takes Georgia, 2020 was an anomaly in my mind, GA has gone Republican in every other election since 1996, that gives Trump 264.

Which means if Harris loses ANY other state, she's done. She has to sweep PA, MI and WI to hit 274.

If the disaffected Arab vote in MI is enough to flip it, plus a Trump win in Georgia, that puts him at 279 to Harris 259. A scarily likely scenario.

[-] kescusay@lemmy.world 3 points 6 hours ago

Honestly, with all the news showing how poll herding has been happening, I think it's quite likely she sweeps the swing states. I'm less nervous now than I was a few days ago.

[-] return2ozma@lemmy.world 2 points 6 hours ago

My prediction is still Harris takes the popular vote, Trump the EC. I hate it here.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 5 points 6 hours ago

Trump hasn't won a popular vote yet, so that's a good call!

[-] return2ozma@lemmy.world 2 points 7 hours ago

Harris rally live with Oprah and Lady Gaga https://www.youtube.com/live/HUbZ1vD9ChY

[-] TransplantedSconie@lemm.ee 3 points 10 hours ago

My favorite take on this comes from James Carville:

"I'm gonna sleep soundly tonight. Have a couple of bourbons, maybe a gummy or two, but yeah. Gonna sleep soundly tonight on her chances to win this thing."

[-] return2ozma@lemmy.world 3 points 10 hours ago

What a year it's been here in the politics channel. I'm still here. Exhausted.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 3 points 10 hours ago

[-] return2ozma@lemmy.world 2 points 10 hours ago

I will be voting tomorrow in person at my polling place before work.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 4 points 10 hours ago

Good for you! We just got the email at work "Hey, do your civic duty, if you need time off to vote, ask your manager."

Of course, I'm vote by mail, ballot's been in since 10/24.

[-] fine_sandy_bottom@lemmy.federate.cc 3 points 10 hours ago

Any predictions on what musk / xitter's role in all this will be?

They can basically call states for republicans early.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 2 points 10 hours ago

Musk will likely be promoting anything claiming a Trump win, but I don't think X has their own election coverage, do they?

[-] fine_sandy_bottom@lemmy.federate.cc 4 points 9 hours ago

That's kind of what I mean. They don't have their own formal coverage, but they can manipulate the prevalence of different narratives.

If officials refuse to certify whatever states, having the perceived support of the public can make all the difference.

[-] Rapidcreek@lemmy.world 5 points 12 hours ago

When you should know

"Near-complete election results are expected from Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan on Tuesday night, but only partial results from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona, Harris-Walz campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon told reporters in a Monday afternoon briefing,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Dillon predicted additional results from Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be available earlier in the day Wednesday, with Arizona and Nevada trickling in the rest of the week.”

Said Dillon: “We’re going to continue to see new votes being reported for many days after Election Day. We believe this race is going to be incredibly close, so we may not know the results of this election for several days.”

[-] kescusay@lemmy.world 16 points 21 hours ago

Just listened to Selzer break down her methodology in clear, simple terms. I'm starting to think the polling error this cycle is pretty big, and Harris is going to win handily.

[-] fine_sandy_bottom@lemmy.federate.cc 5 points 13 hours ago

I've been thinking about this too.

I've heard a lot of commentary about how polling has addressed the shortcomings of recent election cycles and that its more or less all fixed now. I do wonder though, there seems to be a heap of things that are very difficult to account for.

For example, who's actually going to vote vs just intending to vote. For example the garbage thing has motivated a lot of people to get it done.

Another is the late break. I think for a lot of people that just don't pay attention to politics, if you ask them 2 weeks ago they just haven't really thought about it - their answers are precooked from last cycle. As the big day comes around and people think about candidates, lots of traditional republicans voters will make a different choice.

Also just generally with polls is the type of person that actually completes polls. Most people ain't got time for that.

Of course I understand pollsters try to control for these things but as these problems stack up its easy to see how there can be some surprises.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 9 points 17 hours ago

God I hope so... The #1 problem with polling has been trying to determine who is or is not a "likely voter".

We're seeing that in PA. 22 recent polls, 18 "Likely Voter" polls, meanwhile 100,000 new voters casting ballots early. New voters aren't counted as "likely".

[-] TheGiantKorean@lemmy.world 4 points 16 hours ago

Appreciate you putting this together!

[-] fmstrat@lemmy.nowsci.com 5 points 20 hours ago

Would be helpful if the megapost showed the current overall standing. Or am I missing something?

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 7 points 17 hours ago

Yup, that's the plan once results start rolling in tomorrow! I just wanted to have all the structure in place first!

[-] fmstrat@lemmy.nowsci.com 2 points 15 hours ago

Noyce.

[-] JoMiran@lemmy.ml 41 points 1 day ago

Texas waited until the 29th of October to mail out my ballot. As of today (November 3rd), I have yet to receive it. I fully expect Texas to fuck me over.

[-] aaron@lemm.ee 11 points 1 day ago

Everything is rigger in Texas

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 28 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

That's crazy late to mail it OUT. Too late even to mail it back. You'll have to either find a drop box or hand deliver it to county elections HQ.

If you don't get it in time, you can always vote in person.

[-] JoMiran@lemmy.ml 14 points 1 day ago

I can't because I am currently out of state. I believe the cutoff is the post mark date. Still, if it doesn't arrive tomorrow, they fucked me...and my wife.

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[-] RampantParanoia2365@lemmy.world 4 points 1 day ago

Thank you for your service!

[-] fine_sandy_bottom@lemmy.federate.cc 6 points 1 day ago* (last edited 13 hours ago)

Any ideas what might be the best way to observe this shit show unfold if your not in the US?

... other than here I mean.

Edit: for those wondering the time zones are:

Pacific: UTC -8:00 Eastern: UTC -5:00

[-] Maggoty@lemmy.world 1 points 4 minutes ago

Under The Desk News is going to have a YouTube live stream. I'm assuming they won't be the only one.

[-] Greyfoxsolid@lemmy.world 6 points 1 day ago

ABC News live on YouTube.

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[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 11 points 1 day ago

3 AM Eastern / 12 Midnight Pacific
American Samoa -

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 11 points 1 day ago

6 AM Eastern / 3 AM Pacific:
Guam -
Northern Mariana Islands -

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this post was submitted on 03 Nov 2024

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