During the rally Carlson, who has three adult daughters, compared the US under Trump to a naughty girl being disciplined by her father. “If you allow your hormone-addled 15-year-old daughter to slam the door and give you the finger, you’re going to get more if it,” Carlson said. “There has to be a point at which Dad comes home.” At this point the crowd erupted into raucous cheers.

“Dad comes home and he’s pissed,” Carlson continues. “He’s not vengeful, he loves his children. Disobedient as they may be, he loves them … And when Dad gets home, you know what he says? You’ve been a bad girl. You’ve been a bad little girl and you’re getting a vigorous spanking right now. And no, it’s not going to hurt me more than it hurts you. No, it’s not. I’m not going to lie. It’s going to hurt you a lot more than it hurts me. And you earned this. You’re getting a vigorous spanking because you’ve been a bad girl, and it has to be this way.”

I mean... What. In. The. Fuck. Carlson just gave himself an erection in front of a crowd.

Nate Silver's essay discusses the limitations of gut instincts in election predictions, emphasizing that while polls in battleground states show a tight race, no one should trust their "gut" predictions. Silver’s "gut" leans toward Trump, but he stresses that polls are complex and often subject to errors like nonresponse bias. Both Trump and Harris could overperform based on various polling dynamics. He also warns of potential polling herding, which could lead to a larger-than-expected victory for either candidate. Ultimately, the outcome remains highly uncertain.

In Nate Silver's electoral forecast, Trump is now leading Harris by 6.5% to win the electoral college.

This final stretch is eerily similar to Clinton/Trump.

I would appreciate people not knee-jerk downvoting this post just because they don't like what it implies. It's worth being aware that Trump has been steadily gaining for a month, Harris has been losing ground, and this model now has her likely to lose. Ignoring these facts makes it difficult to do anything about them.

Nate Silver's polling tracker now has Trump slightly favored to win (50.2%) the election. While this shift appears small, it has drawn attention because it pushes Trump just past the halfway mark in forecasts for winning the Electoral College.

Silver explains that while Trump’s rise over recent weeks is significant, and his polling model, is designed to minimize overreactions to new data to provide more accurate long-term predictions (i.e., it's likely a "real" effect), this doesn't in any way mean Trump "will" win, and the race remains highly competitive, especially in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which are critical to determining the outcome.

I was looking for a community about the TV show From, but I didn't see any. Anyone here watching the show?

NBC has delayed airing a new documentary about Trump's child-separation policy, described by MSNBC's Chris Hayes as "absolutely urgent," until December, despite its importance for public interest. The reason behind the delay appears to be concerns that airing it earlier could hurt Trump's feelings, thereby making him unlikely to do an MSNBC debate. This decision has been criticized as prioritizing Trump's sensitivities over informing the public on a significant and painful policy issue.

The article describes efforts by top Republicans to penalize U.S. universities that allow pro-Palestinian protests on their campuses. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise outlined plans to revoke the accreditation of universities that don't suppress criticism of Israel, potentially jeopardizing billions in federal funding. This push, coordinated with the pro-Israel lobby group AIPAC, would be pursued under a second Trump administration. The offensive targets universities like Harvard, the University of Pennsylvania, and Columbia University, which have faced controversy over their handling of student protests. Critics argue that this is an attack on academic freedom and could have severe constitutional implications.

I was talking to a coworker about these new phishing attacks that send your name and address and sometimes a picture of your house, and I was saying how creepy it is, and they told me that phonebooks were delivered to everyone and used to have like literally everyone in a city listed by last name with their phone number and address. Is that for real?

As this recently updated article discusses, while extremely unlikely, given the way this timeline is going it's possible the electoral college ends in a tie. Nate Silver projects this as a .3% possibility.

Things to think about:

1. Only about half of the states require their electors to vote for the person that won their state. Who are the electors? Generally no one you know.

2. If there's a tie, the House elects a president and the Senate elects a VP. Sub-consideration: it is the composition of the House and Senate after the November election that makes those determinations.

3. This would all technically be decided on January 6th. And you remember how that went last time.

Regardless, it's highly unlikely this will happen. Still, this would be utter and complete madness. There is literally a non-zero chance we have a Trump/Harris administration. 🤣

Why are knife control laws so strong in the United States as opposed to gun control?

I was realizing it would be nice to have a knife with auto opening for boxes, etc., basically a switch blade or similar, and I found out that they are super illegal in my state (and/or there are length restrictions, or both sides of the blade can't be sharp, etc), but I can go into a sporting goods store and buy a pistol and ammo in under 30min.

Shooting open an Amazon box seems inefficient. What is up with restrictive knife-control laws??

Ok, so obviously no one here has done anything to make this world what it is. Wall Street, corporations, and racist social structures are why the world is how it is, and that is just the truth.

I don't understand why I should feel bad about anything when obviously all of these rich assholes and structures of oppression exist. I didn't make them.

Until the corporations and wealthy people change, why should I feel guilty or bad about things. This literally isn't my fault, they did this, so I just feel like I should be able to live my life and not have to worry about all this. Why can't I?