• All the elements are in place for a strike inside Venezuela

• Diplomatic relations with Venezuela have been broken since 2019.

• In 2020, the US indicted President Maduro for narco-terrorism, placing a $15 million bounty on him, subsequently raised to $25m and now $50m.

• On January 20, Trump took office. Executive Order 14157 declared a “national emergency” and designated international drug-trafficking groups as “foreign terrorist organizations” (FTOs) and “specially designated global terrorists,” citing authority under the Alien Enemies Act.

• By February, Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued that FTOs posed an “existential threat” and laid the groundwork for treating cartels allegedly linked to President Maduro as enemy combatants.

• In May, the administration opened the path to use military force against FTOs.

• Then in July, a “secret directive” authorized military operations against FTOs at sea and on foreign soil.

• By August, the US launched a massive naval deployment off the coast of Venezuela. By October, troop deployment reportedly reached 10,000.

• On September 2, the US blew up the first of four or five alleged drug boats in international waters off of Venezuela, resulting in extrajudicial murders of the crews.

• By mid-September, the Pentagon notified Congress under the War Powers Resolution that US forces were engaged in a “non-international armed conflict” with drug cartels.

• This was followed on October 1 by the Defense Department’s “confidential memo” and more congressional briefings that the US was engaged in armed conflict.

• Trump then terminated the last back-channel diplomatic contacts with Venezuela.

Personally: no & yes. For the latter, a legitimate court of law ought to laugh at this case. But that's not what he is facing.

The subject came up in conversation, so I figured I would take the temperature here.